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Core Topics for the Everyday Investor

Investment Bias: Recency

Investment Bias: Recency

It’s no secret that investors tend to chase investment performance, in fact most mutual funds and investment companies count on it. Flows into mutual funds are highly correlated to the funds performance in the prior four quarters. Thus, investors piling into an investment shortly after peaking and about to reverse lower is a constant habit and source of poor performance. Because the investment has been climbing higher recently, investors believe that will remain the case. This is the recency bias, the belief that the near term recent performance, is more valuable than the long term performance.

Recency bias undoubtedly skews how investors evaluate the longevity of economic cycles. This causes them to find conviction in a bull market even when they should grow cautious of its potential deterioration. Inversely, they avoid acquiring assets in a bear market because they remain overly pessimistic and discount the urgency of a recovery. The feeling that our minds create about the most recent of events is an irrational overweighting of those events over the long term history of an investment. This causes investors to be sluggish in their investment decision, and gets them to incorrectly gauge the value of new, and likely more important changes in the underlying mathematics and economics of an investment.

Not only can recency bias affect the performance evaluation of a stock, they will also reflect that on the advisor. Investors will routinely see under performance of an investment advisor for years, until the advisor is correct on an investment.

Recency bias is more discernible when discussing the timing of a market, it is often measured and witnessed through momentum indicators that disproportionately weigh the volume of transactions on a stock, over its fundamentals. Using investors cognitive bias against them, some trading strategies count on direction changes in investors momentum to exploit likely mispriced securities. 

Recency bias is likely the most reliable bias to measure in the machinations of the market itself, and several formulas can identify and exploit the convictions associated with this sentiment. 

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Other Related Topics:

Definitions: Fixed Income

Fixed Income (or debt) represents your ownership over the repayment of a debt. Usually considered bonds, they are contracts promising the repayment of loaned money. Other forms of debt arrangements include Mortgage-Backed Securities, liens, loans, and CDs. Fixed income is called that because the return is decided on the outset – so the return is fixed from the initial offering. Because the upside is fixed from the start, the change in their pricing is less dramatic. Thus, fixed income pricing becomes less about the asset itself, and more about the prevailing rates for other options (read “current interest rate environment”). Debt is usually priced based on three variables, 1) How likely you are going to get your debt repaid, who owes the borrowed money, and what is the way they will pay it back? (Taxation, revenue, etc.) 2) how long until you are repaid your initial investment, this is called duration and indicates how long the money is at risk for. 3) the rate that the debtor is paying on the borrowed sum, usually expressed percentage as a coupon or yield. There are subcategories based on who the entity requesting the money fall into: Muni’s  – a Districts or Municipalities Debt. Usually issued to fund special projects, schools, or city and municipal improvements. In addition to the yield, these are priced for risk based on cities’ credit history, the source they plan to repay the loan (taxation or toll-based), and any available insurance they put on the bonds. Treasuries – the sovereign debt of a country. This is debt usually supported by the taxing authority of a country and its ability to create (fiat) the money they need. This is priced based on the credit rating of the country, the outlook of its currency, and the yield. Corporate – debt issued by companies and priced based on their creditworthiness. These are divided into investment grade and non-investment grade (called affectionately “high yield”) and then subdivided further. Certified Deposits (CD’s) – debt issued by banks. These are usually issued in small increments and for a short duration. The returns are insured by the FDIC (federal government) Mortgages (MBS) – These are backed by the creditworthiness of the borrower, and usually the risk is mitigated by grouping a pool of mortgages into tranches based on their collective credit rating. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CLOs) – Similar to the mortgages, this is a collection of debts that secure equipment or are backed by specialty financial arrangements.  Often backed by the repossession of accounts receivable or equipment.  

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Definitions: Equity

The term Equity represents any ownership rights over an asset’s cash flow generation potential. As an asset class, there is no guarantee of a return on your investment, it is the most speculative of assets classes and is the only asset class that can have its intrinsic value brought to zero. But because it is ownership without end, and a right to the value in perpetuity, it is also the source of the greatest returns. The math looks like this: The most common sources of Equity are stocks, your home, and other real estate assets. But equities can also include ownership in a business through your own formation, or as the result of a private placement and they also include art, royalty agreements, or leasing agreements.  Other terms for Equity are shareholder value, book value, or stake.

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Definitions: Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation is how we discuss the percent of assets in one of the four main asset classes. It is the balance of risk and reward and is the most reliable leading indicator of the intermediate and long term trajectory of a portfolio. The Asset Allocation is the first place we can adjust to a client individual’s goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Asset allocation is often displayed as a pie chart and discussed in terms of the ratio. For example, the “60/40” is a shorthand reference to a portfolio that is 60% allocated to equities, and 40% to debt. These are used by many firms to place clients into a suitable collection of investments. The four assets classes we define in Asset Allocation are Equity, Fixed Income, Cash, and Precious metals.

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