InSight

Essential InSights

Core Topics for the Everyday Investor

Investment Bias: Hindsight

Investment Bias: Hindsight

Hindsight bias is reading beneficial past events obviously predictable, and bad events as not predictable and without cause (called black swans). In the decade between 1999 and 2009, we have many explanations for poor investment performance. Brokers and talking heads alike have found a litany of blame for the unpredictability and volatility of markets in those times. 

Terrorism, irrational exuberance, greed, and lack of oversight are often the source of blame, and it’s easier to call these “black swans” or isolated external impacts on markets. These events are frequently conveyed as unpredictable. Likewise, economic expansion, low borrowing rates, government spending are all seen in hindsight as obviously predictive. The truth is these are both predictive, and neither is predictive. The hindsight bias starts as an attempt to make sense of these events and form a narrative to justify them. The bias is not a history lesson – adding content is not the issue. The bias comes from the now formed belief that the actions were obviously rational because in the end they were fruitful. This is backwards logic, it’s as to say “I didn’t wreck the car because I predicted I wouldn’t wreck the car” after the car was not wrecked. 

While these “prediction” events make for great marketing material, they make for poor logic. It assumes that an investor that takes ten outsized bets, sees three pay off well, three perform at market, three underperform and one bankrupt predicted the three that did well. Then in hindsight fills in the actions that prove the three great picks were obvious and predictable, and the bankruptcy is from something impossible to understand. This type of reconciliation after the fact leads an investor to become overconfident in their predictive capabilities, and understate their ability to put together the history in a positive way.  

The “best idea” spin:

Once an investor or investment company has those documented success stories they use them to attract new investors for their next ten picks. Believing that the success they had in investments 1, 2 and 3 were representative of their skill and the bankruptcy was unpredictable. This idea to spin the good isn’t new to the sales and marketing people and exploits the bias that events are predictable and through skill and time can be divined. This “feeling” of success is the bias, and that the belief that the next set of ten pick will have something to do with the last ten.

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Other Related Topics:

Definitions: Fixed Income

Fixed Income (or debt) represents your ownership over the repayment of a debt. Usually considered bonds, they are contracts promising the repayment of loaned money. Other forms of debt arrangements include Mortgage-Backed Securities, liens, loans, and CDs. Fixed income is called that because the return is decided on the outset – so the return is fixed from the initial offering. Because the upside is fixed from the start, the change in their pricing is less dramatic. Thus, fixed income pricing becomes less about the asset itself, and more about the prevailing rates for other options (read “current interest rate environment”). Debt is usually priced based on three variables, 1) How likely you are going to get your debt repaid, who owes the borrowed money, and what is the way they will pay it back? (Taxation, revenue, etc.) 2) how long until you are repaid your initial investment, this is called duration and indicates how long the money is at risk for. 3) the rate that the debtor is paying on the borrowed sum, usually expressed percentage as a coupon or yield. There are subcategories based on who the entity requesting the money fall into: Muni’s  – a Districts or Municipalities Debt. Usually issued to fund special projects, schools, or city and municipal improvements. In addition to the yield, these are priced for risk based on cities’ credit history, the source they plan to repay the loan (taxation or toll-based), and any available insurance they put on the bonds. Treasuries – the sovereign debt of a country. This is debt usually supported by the taxing authority of a country and its ability to create (fiat) the money they need. This is priced based on the credit rating of the country, the outlook of its currency, and the yield. Corporate – debt issued by companies and priced based on their creditworthiness. These are divided into investment grade and non-investment grade (called affectionately “high yield”) and then subdivided further. Certified Deposits (CD’s) – debt issued by banks. These are usually issued in small increments and for a short duration. The returns are insured by the FDIC (federal government) Mortgages (MBS) – These are backed by the creditworthiness of the borrower, and usually the risk is mitigated by grouping a pool of mortgages into tranches based on their collective credit rating. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CLOs) – Similar to the mortgages, this is a collection of debts that secure equipment or are backed by specialty financial arrangements.  Often backed by the repossession of accounts receivable or equipment.  

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Definitions: Equity

The term Equity represents any ownership rights over an asset’s cash flow generation potential. As an asset class, there is no guarantee of a return on your investment, it is the most speculative of assets classes and is the only asset class that can have its intrinsic value brought to zero. But because it is ownership without end, and a right to the value in perpetuity, it is also the source of the greatest returns. The math looks like this: The most common sources of Equity are stocks, your home, and other real estate assets. But equities can also include ownership in a business through your own formation, or as the result of a private placement and they also include art, royalty agreements, or leasing agreements.  Other terms for Equity are shareholder value, book value, or stake.

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Definitions: Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation is how we discuss the percent of assets in one of the four main asset classes. It is the balance of risk and reward and is the most reliable leading indicator of the intermediate and long term trajectory of a portfolio. The Asset Allocation is the first place we can adjust to a client individual’s goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Asset allocation is often displayed as a pie chart and discussed in terms of the ratio. For example, the “60/40” is a shorthand reference to a portfolio that is 60% allocated to equities, and 40% to debt. These are used by many firms to place clients into a suitable collection of investments. The four assets classes we define in Asset Allocation are Equity, Fixed Income, Cash, and Precious metals.

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