InSight

Market InSights:

Rudolph with Your Nose So Bright

Investing 2021

If you don’t recall the most famous reindeer of all, Rudolph, the Montgomery Ward creation possesses the special characteristic to guide Santa’s sleigh among a fog that would have otherwise canceled Christmas. Like Rudolph’s nose, I’m going to highlight a couple of macroeconomics bright spots that we like right now, that will surely support markets and guide us through the fog of 2021. Enjoy the holiday season and may you have a prosperous new year. 

Unemployment – I think it’s fair to say that the spike in unemployment (fastest spike ever) and the subsequent drop in unemployment (fastest drop ever) have given politicians the hyperbole they need, but the rate getting back to 6.7% means a couple of good things going forward. Firstly, the “easy to lose” and “easy to return” jobs were flushed out in the spike, and the jobs that could easily return have. This means that while each percentage point from here on out is going to be harder and harder, the headline risk of massive jobless swings has likely settled for now. Unemployment in the +6’s has been the recent peaks for prior negative economic swings. In 2003, we peaked at 6.3%, 1992 7.7% even the economic crisis in 2009 only saw a peak of 9.9%. So at least the unemployment figures have gotten back to “normal bad” and not “historically bad”. But here is the good news for 2021, from this point forward we will get positive headlines for employment. I think we have crested, the liquidity in the markets has helped, and near term the unemployment outlook is stable. This pandemic is different than a cyclical recession, this can be resolved as quickly as the damage was done, and for between 4-8 quarters we can see a routine and constructive print for joblessness. This will be a supportive series of headlines for markets. 

Inflation – Inflation will be a headwind for bonds and cash but will be constructive for some assets. Those invested in equities will see an increase in capital chasing the same number of assets. This inflation will be constructive for stocks and other hard assets from 2021 but will cut into the expectations for the buying power of dollars going forward. Expect long term dollar weakness. Additionally, we’re not alone, this pandemic is global and I anticipate every central bank to prefer adding liquidity to their economies over the risk of inflation. Expect countries that emerge from the pandemic quickly to see a major tailwind from global inflation, those whose course is slower and shutdowns longer to be hampered by it.  

Debt – Record low borrowing costs should tee up leveraged companies for success. This is absolutely a situation where “zombie” companies will be created, so investors should be aware of the health of companies they are buying, but long term, allowing companies that have been historically highly leveraged to restructure at amazing rates, or even granting companies that have healthy balance sheets more cheap capital to take on more cap-ex projects for the at least a decade or more will be supportive for the market on the whole. As I write this, the 2-10 spread is .8%, in my opinion giving corporate CFO’s carte blanche to begin issuing new debt and extending all maturities on existing debt. Seeing these companies become so tenacious in the debt market normally would spook investors, but it’s hard to imagine a more supportive environment for borrowers than sub-2% borrowing costs for AAA companies and sub-4% for high yield borrowers. Debt was low for the recovery after 2009 and is now bargain-basement prices. These are rates that are likely to persist through 2021 and with Janet Yellen (Dovish) at the treasury, and no change in the attitude of the Fed I’m not seeing a change in sight. This will likely mean yields will be below inflation for some time as central banks try to juice the recovery at the expense of inflation. 

Earnings – Companies have broadly been able to understate their earnings projections through the pandemic. The science of slow-rolling their debts, and lowering the expectations of analysts has been fantastic. Companies across sectors have been able to step over the lowered bar without major disruption this year. Now while, for the most part, the pandemic has given them top cover to have earnings below their historic figures, the companies in the S&P 500 have done a fantastic job this year of collectively using this window to reset the expectations of investors without sounding alarms. Managing expectations lower, then beating them has been a theme in 2020, that in 2021 will look like a great trajectory for earnings as we emerge from COVID-19. This is going to be a fantastic and virtuous atmosphere of rising earnings. The usual suspects for this earning improvement cycle will show up, banks, technology, and consumer discretionary investors will like this reset in the cycle and the aforementioned upswing in earnings these groups are poised for.

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Kevin Taylor

Do your chores or there will be NO MONEY in your retirement account!!!! ~ DAD

First off, review this list of answers and accept how incredible this idea is, to both fund college, make your kids earn it, and do it all in a tax-advantaged way: Yes, income earned in the home can be put into a child’s Roth (within the rules) Yes, the income and savings can be used for college, or really any major life purchase Yes, it is a relatively easy strategy if you follow the below tips If you are raising your kids like I am mine, the early years are an important time to ingrain a set of good money habits that hopefully they keep for the rest of their lives. I require my kids to put 10% of any money they earn into the following categories, college, giving, and taxes (back to the family). Meaning they only ever get to spend about 70% of their income. This has been met with several comments ranging from “awesome” to “cruel”. But for my kids, it’s all they know. They don’t negotiate or object to taxes because it has always been how they get paid. I hand them a dollar and take a dime back instantly. It’s visceral, and habitual at this point.  I feel money is a difficult idea if children are never given the opportunity to handle it, hold it, and lose it. When it comes to teaching financial lessons, setting a good parental example is important, but actually giving the child some experience making wise financial decisions is essential. This includes both giving the child decision-making authority with their own money and giving the child the means to earn money outside of or instead of an allowance. This is where the Roth comes into play, and your opportunity to hire your child… This is an open platform to pay your children in a way that makes sense for your family. And the best part is that this payment can be counted as earned income and thus qualifying for Roth eligibility. But there are some rules you need to follow and this article will walk parents through the right way to keep the Roth eligibility intact.  You will want to make it clear, under which IRS designation you want to use. The two options are as a self-employed independent contractor or a household employee of yourselves.  This all might sound silly, hiring your child as a contractor, but the benefits make it worth it. I promise. And like taxing your children, it might only sound silly because it’s new, but your kids won’t know this isn’t normal and will just roll with it. The Independent Contractor Route… If you decide that your child is an independent contractor, then all of the child’s earnings must be reported as Self-Employed on Schedule C.  So it should be noted that if their net earnings from this kind of self-employment are more than $400, the child would need to pay self-employment tax (Medicare and Social Security) on Schedule SE. That’s an important threshold to be aware of.  Quite possibly the best part of choosing the independent contractor route is that your child could work for many different families. So if they are routinely engaging in neighborhood childcare, lawn maintenance, or other jobs in your community, this might be the most open path.  Let’s be clear though, this route still requires that the child follow the child labor laws. But these laws are reasonable restrictions for most circumstances.  The first law of note is the age restrictions on certain occupations. If your child is under 14, then the list of potential occupations is limited to: delivering newspapers to customers; babysitting on a casual basis; work as an actor or performer in movies, TV, radio, or theater; work as a homeworker gathering evergreens and making evergreen wreaths; and work for a business owned entirely by your parents as long as it is not in mining, manufacturing, or any of the 17 hazardous occupations. This is the sweet spot for any family that has 1or more family businesses.  At age 14 and above the universe of employment can expand to include: intellectual or creative work such as computer programming, teaching, tutoring, singing, acting, or playing an instrument; retail occupations; errands or delivery work by foot, bicycle, and public transportation; clean-up and yard work which does not include using power-driven mowers, cutters, trimmers, edgers, or similar equipment; work in connection with cars and trucks such as dispensing gasoline or oil and washing or hand polishing; some kitchen and food service work including reheating food, washing dishes, cleaning equipment, and limited cooking; cleaning vegetables and fruits, wrapping sealing, and labeling, weighing pricing, and stocking of items when performed in areas separate from a freezer or meat cooler; loading or unloading objects for use at a worksite including rakes, hand-held clippers, and shovels; 14- and 15-year-olds who meet certain requirements can perform limited tasks in sawmills and woodshops; and 15-year-olds who meet certain requirements can perform lifeguard duties at traditional swimming pools and water amusement parks. At age 16 or 17, almost any job that is not expressly prohibited (like alcohol serves or licensed operations) becomes available to children.  For more details on the standing labor laws and how they pertain to children consult YouthRules.Gov. The Household Employee Route… This is likely the more common route, and requires less diligence in what the job is, and the laws that protect it. There are two general guidelines you still note before you take this route:  Your list of jobs allowed under child labor laws expands significantly as you are allowed to “work for a business owned entirely by your parents as long as it is not in mining, manufacturing, or any of the 17 hazardous occupations” at any age. The wages are exempt from FICA taxes if they are working for a business owned solely by their parent(s). When determining if this employment is suitable this is the question you need to ask yourself: Does the employer (you) have control

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Kevin Taylor

Tax Mitigation Playbook: How much money do you have to reinvest?

In order to defer ALL capital gains and depreciation recapture taxes from the sale of the Relinquished Property the taxpayer must pay an equal or higher price for the Replacement Property than the Relinquished Property was sold. Should any debt or amount not be reinvested this portion, called boot, would be taxable. The “Boot” is any non-like-kind property or property(ies) that do not qualify, which could include cash, notes, partnership interests, securities, inventory, or property held primarily for sale not investment, etc. Boot is categorized into two types: cash boot, which is cash received, and mortgage boot, which is any reduction in loan or debt on the exchange. Any boot received during a 1031 exchange is subject to taxation as either depreciation recapture or capital gain. It is important to note that any credits on the settlement statement directly paid out to the taxpayer may also result in boot and a taxable event. If certain situations are not handled properly in the construction and administration of the 1031 exchange it can result in credits on the settlement statement. Here are a couple of common situations: If earnest money is paid out of pocket by the taxpayer then it will be credited on the settlement statement. To avoid this, the earnest money should be paid by the qualified intermediary out of the exchange funds whenever possible. If the settlement statement shows credits for property taxes, security deposit(s), or rent prorations those would be taxable. Instead, the taxpayer should consider asking the seller to pay these items outside of the closing. In summary, to avoid a taxable event in its entirety the taxpayer must reinvest equal to or greater than the value of the sale of the Relinquished Property. However, the taxpayer may take cash out, creating boot, but they will have to pay the associated taxes. The Complete Playbook

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Kevin Taylor

Cash Flow: 6 Successes For Your Dental Practice (1/2)

A cornerstone of any business is having a mastery over your revenue and cash flow. Lucky for our dentist clients, they have a fantastic capacity for inflow, but disproportionately high outflows from expenses and taxes. Analyzing your accounts receivable and operating activities is an intrinsic part of our cash flow analysis process and the best leading indicator for the success of your practice and of your financial plan. By Kevin T. Taylor AIF® and Peter Locke CFP® Increasing working capital in your dental practice is crucial in maintaining the quality of your service and longevity of your business. You need a steady top line to run a successful practice.  A lack of a consistent or sufficient positive cash flow is a threat to your dental practice and can ultimately prevent you from being able to provide proper care for your patients. Dealing with irregular cash flow is a frustrating situation for any business. Our oral health professionals are no exception. It poses an existential threat to the business and jeopardizes the effectiveness of every aspect of your management. Issues in payroll or marketing extend into the quality of your service causing long term decay in your offices efficacy. If you are dealing with irregular cash flow at your practice, review ways to make your collections more consistent, increase your net income , and maintain the efficiency of your cash cycle. Cash Flow Help Some ways to fix cash flow issues at your practice may include providing financing options to your patients which can lead to a more reliable gross income stream, scheduling patient meetings while they’re getting work done, restructuring your salary to increase distributions (lowering taxes and payroll), restructuring what entity you’re using for your business and your tax classification, utilizing your available deductions (like a home office, car, mileage, phone, etc), expensing more to your practice that’s applicable to your situation like continuing education requirements and uniforms, hiring family members, and many more. Establish a payment policy It is important that you have a clear payment policy for your patients to follow through. Putting a time premium on your sales revenue and cash balance will pay dividends for your practice. Communicate your payment policy to your patients upfront and have it clearly written in your facility. But, your practice must enforce this policy and consistently remind your patients sooner before their bill is due. When you do not have a payment policy, your cash flow will become stressed and so will you. Letting your patients understand that your payment policy must be duly followed. Cash Flow from online payments Allow payment on your website, and use several payment options. This will increase the ease of receiving and reconciling payment at your practice. These habits support a healthy line of company revenue, and raises the amount of cash you have on hand, and will bring a positive outlook into your financial statements. Not only will this ensure that you get the funds into your bottom line within a few days, but also offer your patients a convenient and easy way to pay. And if, your patients can pay up fast and easily as soon as they get a bill. Subtle changes as online payment can increase bring stability to your cash flow statement. Accelerate income collection Revisit delinquent accounts and call them. This is a part of practice planning that you or your employees may not like to do, but it’s essential. You need to remind your defaulters to pay up or they won’t see the need to. So, Review the patients’ accounts and get on a call to remind them of the money owed. You may also seek out financing companies that can help patients that can afford a monthly payment for a lot of work but maybe not a large upfront expense.  By doing this, you can get a consistent income stream for longer and even when you encounter patients that default, the fee you charge to finance can help mitigate the risk of financing overtime. Remember it is important to be understanding and compassionate when talking to your patients. Work with them to see how best they can pay. Before hanging up, confirm with them the amount owed and the date they agreed to pay. Continued on 6 Cash Flow Successes For Your Dental Practice (2/2)

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