InSight

Market InSights:

There Is Too Much Money

You read that right, there is simply too much cash in the capital markets to not see a handful of effects that could impact your investments and plan. The supply of money floating around is massive right now. There is a lot of risk, COVID has us concerned about the economics of the coming year, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore how much cash has been made available.

Even relative to itself, it’s a volume of cash in the money supply that will take at least a decade to settle into long term investments, or be recaptured by the Fed. At the beginning of the year there was roughly $15T in circulation held in cash and cash equivalents. We are in December and the number is closer to $19T of more highly liquid cash in the world. This $4T expansion in only 12 months is remarkable.

Here’s some history on money supply. It took until 1997 to reach the first $4T in circulation, the decade from 2009 to 2019 saw that supply double from $8T to almost $16T (the fastest doubling ever), resulting in a major part of the expansion of the stock market for that decade. Now, in twelve months we have seen a flood of almost 27% more money in the supply than there was at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

One of the best leading indicators for where capital markets are headed, can be found in how much money, especially highly liquid money like cash, is available in the system. This is a reflection of how big the pie is. Usually in investments we are focused on cash flow, and a companies market share – or how effective a company is at capturing cash flow from a given size of market. That’s becoming less relevant as the sheer volume of cash has exploded. The pie is so big right now that there will have to be a a few notable adjustments to make:

InflationWhile I have heard that Jerome Powell has not registered an increase in inflation yet, it is hard to believe that as the newly introduced money will not have an expansive effect on the costs of goods and services. Many mark the inflation rate off the CPI, grievances with that benchmark aside, it would be irresponsible to assume that the basket of securities they mark to market does not see an above average increase as more money finds its way into the same number of consumer goods. Additionally, elements like rents will see a disproportionate increase in the coming decade because while supply of say consumer goods will increase quickly to capture this cash, construction of rental properties is a less reactive market and a slower roll out to correct the market. In the meantime expect rental costs and revenues to see above average inflation figures. 

Interest Rates – Permanently impaired. As I write this the current observation, the 10 year US Treasury is paying 0.9%, a third of where it was even 2 years ago. It is heard to believe that such a robust introduction of cash doesn’t become a permanent downward pressure on fixed income assets for the foreseeable future. Unless there is a formal and aggressive contraction of the money supply, it will take decades for the amount of cash in circulation to let up that downward pressure on bonds. Interest rates in short term assets will be particularly affected as the demand has become less appetizing in contrast to long term debt, and the supply of cash is chasing too small of demand. 

EquitiesThe real benefactor here. It is hard not to believe that over the course of the coming decade, this cash infusion doesn’t trickle its way up and into the stock market and other asset values. Generally the most “risky” part of the market is the historically the benefactor of excesses in cash. Companies will do what they do best and capture this supply of cash through normal operations, this will expand their revenues and ultimately the bottom line. Additionally, the compressed borrowing costs from low interest rates will lower their operating costs. Compound the poor risk reward ratio in bonds and you will see more of those investments seek out stocks, real estate, and other capital assets. This sector will see a virtuous combination of more revenue, and more demand for shares. Expect permanently elevated P/E reads for the time being. 

 

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The Ethical Implications of AI Investing

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the way we live and work, and as a result, there has been a surge of interest in AI investing. While AI has the potential to create significant value for investors and society as a whole, there are also ethical implications that must be considered. As AI technology continues to develop, there are growing concerns about its impact on privacy, employment, and overall societal well-being. In this blog post, we will explore some of these concerns and suggest ways that we can use AI in a responsible manner. Privacy Concerns One of the primary ethical concerns related to AI is privacy. As AI becomes more prevalent, it has the potential to collect and analyze vast amounts of data about individuals, raising questions about who has access to this data and how it is being used. AI algorithms can also inadvertently perpetuate bias, particularly if they are trained on biased data sets. To mitigate these concerns, AI investors can take steps to ensure that the companies they invest in are committed to privacy and transparency. This could include conducting due diligence on companies’ data collection practices, advocating for responsible data governance, and supporting the development of ethical AI frameworks. Conflict with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has gained significant popularity in recent years as investors increasingly consider the social and environmental impact of their investments. However, there is a growing conflict between ESG investing and the new push into AI. On the one hand, AI has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions and improve sustainability by optimizing energy consumption, reducing waste, and improving supply chain management. For example, AI can be used to optimize building energy usage, reducing energy consumption and lowering carbon emissions. AI can also help companies optimize their supply chains, reducing waste and improving the efficiency of logistics. However, there are also concerns about the ethical and social implications of AI. AI systems can inadvertently perpetuate bias, and there are concerns about the potential for AI to be used for surveillance or manipulation. There are also concerns about the impact of AI on employment, particularly in industries that are heavily reliant on low-skilled labor. These concerns pose a significant challenge for ESG investors, who must balance the potential environmental benefits of AI with its ethical and social implications. To address this challenge, ESG investors can advocate for greater transparency and accountability in the development and deployment of AI technologies. They can also support the development of ethical AI frameworks and regulations that guide the responsible use of AI. In addition, ESG investors can support the development of AI technologies that are aligned with ESG principles, such as those focused on improving sustainability, reducing carbon emissions, and improving social outcomes. This could include investing in companies that are focused on developing renewable energy solutions, or that are developing AI systems that can help improve access to healthcare or education. Societal Well-being Concerns Finally, there are concerns about the broader societal impact of AI. As AI technology becomes more ubiquitous, there are concerns about its potential to exacerbate existing social inequalities, perpetuate bias, or even be used to manipulate individuals or governments. To address these concerns, AI investors can support the development of AI technologies that are aligned with societal goals, such as improving access to healthcare or reducing carbon emissions. They can also advocate for greater transparency and accountability in the development and deployment of AI technologies, and support the development of ethical frameworks and regulations that guide the responsible use of AI. Conclusion AI investing offers significant potential for investors, but it also comes with ethical considerations that cannot be ignored. By advocating for responsible AI development and supporting companies that are committed to transparency, accountability, and ethical governance, we can help ensure that AI is used in a way that benefits society as a whole. Ultimately, it is up to us as investors to take an active role in shaping the development and deployment of AI technologies so that they are aligned with our values and priorities.

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Tax Free Rental Income 
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Kevin Taylor

How To: Get Tax Free Rental Income 

Let’s paint a picture of what that world might look like if you could successfully put a rental property into a Roth account. With a Roth, growth in the value of the assets is tax free and the income that comes from your rental is tax free. You may have heard of people buying real estate in self-directed IRAs, and while the income and growth is tax deferred, when withdrawn, creates ordinary income. So, imagine if you could get all that growth tax free in a home in Colorado, while also receiving tax free income after the age of 59.5 every month. Seems like a win win to us and our clients love it.  There are four major benefits to this strategy. First, implementing this strategy can lower your effective tax rate by reducing the withdrawal rates from your tax deferred accounts. Since the first dollars you get in retirement can be from your Roth distributions, this will lower your effective tax rate on other incomes like capital gains on taxable assets, distributions from Traditional IRAs, tax deferred annuities, Pensions, 403(b)s, or 401(k). The second additional effect of this strategy is that Roth’s don’t require that you take a Required Minimum Distribution. So there is no need to liquidate the asset at any point during retirement unless you want to. It’s a near permanent way to get rental income throughout the duration of your retirement.  The third less used benefit, is that some income from the property can also be used to buy other income generating assets to help diversify the stream of income and supply you with less income risk in your non-working years.  The fourth benefit is when you pass the assets onto your heirs.  With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, inherited IRAs lost a key feature which previously enabled beneficiaries to prolong taking distributions from inherited IRAs over their own life expectancy or the life expectancy of the deceased, and requiring them to take it out over 10 years. This forces beneficiaries that may have an unfavorable tax situation into an even more unfavorable tax liability as they’re forced to take on ordinary income from these accounts. However, with Roth accounts, although there are Required Minimum Distributions for inheriting a Roth, the distributions are tax free which is a huge benefit to the beneficiaries. There are some exceptions to this rule but generally speaking, inheriting Roth Accounts for most people is better than inheriting IRAs.  We think this is a near permanent endowment of tax free income, with the ability to rise with inflation, through the entirety of your retirement. I have a perfect storm of desired qualities for most investors. There are however, a few challenges to accomplishing this task, and it depends on the amount of money available in your Roth currently. Because of income and contribution limits to Roth’s most people will not amass the required liquidity in their Roth to be able to make the down payment on a piece of real estate, fewer still will have the assets to be able to buy the property outright.  There are four techniques that we employ this strategy which you should become familiar with.  Backdoor Roth Contributions, or a Mega Backdoor Roth Self Directed Roth’s Asset Lending in Self Directed Roth’s Non traded REIT’s Backdoor Roth Contributions, or a Mega Backdoor Roth jumpstart Tax Free Rental Income  Getting the requisite assets into a Roth can be a bit of a trick. The income limits keep most affluent earners from being able to contribute at all. Even if your income makes you eligible for such a contribution, the annual limit of $6,000 for those younger than 50, means saving and investing for a lifetime into your Roth would scarcely get to an amount meaningful enough to make a down payment or to buy a meaningful property outright (depending on your local market). So getting the investment assets into the account becomes job one. A few ways to jump start this process is to convert assets from your IRA. Generally investors have far more money in Traditional IRA’s and 401k’s then they do in their Roth. Now a quick off ramp to the “tax free rental income” plan would be simply tax deferred rental income by using the assets in the qualified accounts. But for those who want the full boar strategy they need to get ambitious about getting money into you Roth.  We discuss details of the Backdoor Roth Contributions at length here, and the Mega Backdoor Roth here. Both of these methods can provide ample accelerant to getting money out of the qualified account and into the Roth account expeditiously.  There is also a simple conversion of assets for those who are willing to pay taxes currently, to avoid them in the long run. You should work with your CFP® professional or CPA to determine if this tax strategy is the right fit for you.  Self Directed Roth’s are key to Tax Free Rental Income  Most investors are familiar with IRA’s and Roth’s and many are familiar with Self directed accounts (SDIRA). You can see the definition here if you are not yet familiar with SDRIA’s and Roths. We use these specialty account types to properly custodian the assets and make sure they stay compliant for use as an essential part of the “tax free rental income” strategy. These account types delimit the investment types that can be held and make owning a single real estate property (as opposed to traded REIT’s) possible. They provide the right type of tax treatment for assets we like to use. There are however, several compliance and custodian issues that you should be aware of to prevent the asset from being declassified as either an IRA or Roth asset. Oversight of these rules and administration of the accounts is something best overseen by a CFP® professional who understands your situation and can help you stay compliant at all times.  Asset Borrowing in Self Directed Roth’s There are

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Tax Mitigation Playbook: What is a 1031?

A 1031 exchange, also known as a like-kind exchange or tax-deferred exchange, is where real property that is “held for productive use in a trade or business or investment” is sold and the proceeds from the sale are reinvested into a like-kind property intended for business or investment use, allowing the taxpayer, or seller, to defer the capital gains tax and depreciation recapture on the transaction. The property sold as part of a 1031 exchange is the Relinquished Property. The property purchased is the Replacement Property. The real property in a 1031 exchange must be like-kind; most real estate is like-kind to all other real estate. For example, an office building could be exchanged for a rental duplex, a retail shopping center could be exchanged for farmland, etc. During a 1031 exchange, neither the taxpayer nor an agent of the taxpayer can receive or control the funds from the sale of the property. If a taxpayer has direct or indirect access to the funds, a 1031 exchange is no longer valid. A qualified intermediary is used to hold the proceeds of the Relinquished Property sale until it is time to transfer those proceeds for the close of the Replacement property. To be eligible for a 1031 exchange the person or entity must be a US taxpaying identity. This includes individuals, partnerships, S-corporations, C-corporations, LLCs, and trusts. However, it is a requirement that the same taxpayer sells the relinquished property and purchases the replacement property for a valid exchange. 1031 exchanges were first authorized in 1921 because Congress saw the importance of people reinvesting in business assets and they wanted to encourage more of it. There have been changes and additions to the regulations that govern 1031 exchanges, and the most recent changes impacting real estate in a 1031 exchange were in 2001. The Complete Playbook

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