InSight

Market InSights:

There Is Too Much Money

You read that right, there is simply too much cash in the capital markets to not see a handful of effects that could impact your investments and plan. The supply of money floating around is massive right now. There is a lot of risk, COVID has us concerned about the economics of the coming year, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore how much cash has been made available.

Even relative to itself, it’s a volume of cash in the money supply that will take at least a decade to settle into long term investments, or be recaptured by the Fed. At the beginning of the year there was roughly $15T in circulation held in cash and cash equivalents. We are in December and the number is closer to $19T of more highly liquid cash in the world. This $4T expansion in only 12 months is remarkable.

Here’s some history on money supply. It took until 1997 to reach the first $4T in circulation, the decade from 2009 to 2019 saw that supply double from $8T to almost $16T (the fastest doubling ever), resulting in a major part of the expansion of the stock market for that decade. Now, in twelve months we have seen a flood of almost 27% more money in the supply than there was at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

One of the best leading indicators for where capital markets are headed, can be found in how much money, especially highly liquid money like cash, is available in the system. This is a reflection of how big the pie is. Usually in investments we are focused on cash flow, and a companies market share – or how effective a company is at capturing cash flow from a given size of market. That’s becoming less relevant as the sheer volume of cash has exploded. The pie is so big right now that there will have to be a a few notable adjustments to make:

InflationWhile I have heard that Jerome Powell has not registered an increase in inflation yet, it is hard to believe that as the newly introduced money will not have an expansive effect on the costs of goods and services. Many mark the inflation rate off the CPI, grievances with that benchmark aside, it would be irresponsible to assume that the basket of securities they mark to market does not see an above average increase as more money finds its way into the same number of consumer goods. Additionally, elements like rents will see a disproportionate increase in the coming decade because while supply of say consumer goods will increase quickly to capture this cash, construction of rental properties is a less reactive market and a slower roll out to correct the market. In the meantime expect rental costs and revenues to see above average inflation figures. 

Interest Rates – Permanently impaired. As I write this the current observation, the 10 year US Treasury is paying 0.9%, a third of where it was even 2 years ago. It is heard to believe that such a robust introduction of cash doesn’t become a permanent downward pressure on fixed income assets for the foreseeable future. Unless there is a formal and aggressive contraction of the money supply, it will take decades for the amount of cash in circulation to let up that downward pressure on bonds. Interest rates in short term assets will be particularly affected as the demand has become less appetizing in contrast to long term debt, and the supply of cash is chasing too small of demand. 

EquitiesThe real benefactor here. It is hard not to believe that over the course of the coming decade, this cash infusion doesn’t trickle its way up and into the stock market and other asset values. Generally the most “risky” part of the market is the historically the benefactor of excesses in cash. Companies will do what they do best and capture this supply of cash through normal operations, this will expand their revenues and ultimately the bottom line. Additionally, the compressed borrowing costs from low interest rates will lower their operating costs. Compound the poor risk reward ratio in bonds and you will see more of those investments seek out stocks, real estate, and other capital assets. This sector will see a virtuous combination of more revenue, and more demand for shares. Expect permanently elevated P/E reads for the time being. 

 

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The Future Semiconductor Requirements for AI Chips: Unlocking the Next Chapter of Innovation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an indispensable part of our lives, driving advancements in various fields such as healthcare, finance, and transportation. At the heart of this technological revolution lie AI chips, which are the engines powering AI systems. As AI continues to evolve, the demand for more powerful and efficient AI chips is rapidly increasing. In this blog post, we will explore the current leaders in the AI chip space, examine the limitations of existing semiconductor technologies, and discuss where innovation needs to come from for the next chapter of AI chip development. Current Leaders in the AI Chip Space: Several companies have emerged as leaders in the AI chip space, each offering unique solutions to meet the growing demands of AI applications. Here are some notable examples: NVIDIA: NVIDIA has been at the forefront of AI chip development with their Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). GPUs excel at parallel processing, making them well-suited for AI workloads. NVIDIA’s GPUs, such as the Tesla V100 and A100, have become the industry standard for training deep neural networks. Intel: Intel has made significant strides in AI chip development with its Intel Xeon processors and Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). Their processors combine high-performance computing capabilities with AI acceleration features, while FPGAs offer flexible and customizable solutions for AI tasks. Google DeepMind: Google has developed its own AI-specific chip called the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU). TPUs are designed to accelerate both training and inference tasks and have been deployed in Google data centers to power various AI applications, including natural language processing and image recognition. Limitations of Current Semiconductor Technologies: While the current leaders have made remarkable advancements, there are several limitations associated with existing semiconductor technologies that hinder further progress in AI chip development: Power Consumption: AI workloads demand substantial computational power, which often leads to increased power consumption. The energy requirements of AI chips can limit their deployment in resource-constrained environments or mobile devices, where power efficiency is crucial. Memory Bandwidth: AI algorithms heavily rely on large amounts of data, necessitating high memory bandwidth. Current memory technologies face challenges in providing sufficient bandwidth to keep up with the processing requirements of advanced AI models. Latency and Real-Time Processing: Certain AI applications, such as autonomous vehicles and robotics, require real-time processing capabilities. The latency introduced by data movement between memory and processing units can impede the performance and responsiveness of such systems. The Next Chapter of Innovation: To overcome the limitations of current semiconductor technologies and unlock the next chapter of AI chip development, innovation needs to come from multiple fronts: Material Science and Chip Design: Advancements in material science can lead to the development of new materials that offer improved performance, power efficiency, and thermal management. Additionally, innovative chip designs that are optimized for AI workloads, such as neuromorphic architectures or specialized accelerators, can further enhance AI chip capabilities. Memory Technologies: Innovations in memory technologies, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and non-volatile memory, can address the memory bandwidth challenge. These technologies have the potential to offer faster access to data and enable more efficient AI computations. Quantum Computing: Quantum computing holds promise for solving complex AI problems by leveraging quantum algorithms and principles. While still in its early stages, advancements in quantum computing could potentially revolutionize AI chip architectures and significantly enhance their processing capabilities. Neuromorphic Computing: Inspired by the human brain, neuromorphic computing aims to create chips that can process information in a manner similar to how the brain works. This approach can lead to energy-efficient and highly parallel AI chips that mimic the brain’s neural networks. The future of AI chip development lies in overcoming the limitations of current semiconductor technologies. By focusing on material science, chip design, memory technologies, quantum computing, and neuromorphic computing, researchers and engineers can usher in the next chapter of AI chip innovation. The convergence of these advancements will pave the way for more powerful, efficient, and versatile AI chips, enabling new possibilities and applications across various industries.

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Using a 1031 Exchange as part of a divorce

During the course of real estate ownership, there are instances where the transfer of property title occurs involuntarily. One such situation is when a couple goes through a divorce, which often leads to the sale of the property to a third party or the transfer of the property from one spouse to the other. Additionally, if a spouse passes away between the sale of a relinquished property and the purchase of a replacement property, it also affects the dynamics of a 1031 exchange. Let’s explore the impact of these changes in legal ownership on 1031 exchanges in more detail. When a divorced couple intends to sell an investment or business use property to a third party, there are typically no major issues for a 1031 exchange. Despite having been joint tenants and filing taxes jointly, each spouse has the opportunity to pursue their own exchange or opt for a cash-out. Generally, the joint tenancy would have been legally severed as part of the divorce proceedings. Alternatively, the title can be severed prior to a divorce, where one joint tenant signs a deed that designates the grantor spouse as the recipient of the one-half tenancy-in-common interest. In some cases, as part of a divorce settlement agreement, one spouse may transfer their interest in the property to the other spouse. According to IRC Section 1041, when a spouse conveys property to the other spouse as part of a divorce, there is no taxable event for the party transferring the property. The basis of the transferee (the recipient) becomes the adjusted basis of the transferor. However, if the transferee wishes to sell the property in the future and carry out an exchange, they would need to exchange the entire value of the property to achieve full tax deferral. An essential requirement for any 1031 exchange is that the taxpayer must hold the property for investment or business use. Even though the party receiving the other spouse’s interest assumes the former spouse’s basis, it does not mean they automatically inherit the other spouse’s holding period. In these situations, it would be advisable to hold full ownership of the property for a significant period before selling. Ideally, holding the property for two years or longer would be ideal, but at the very least, it should be held for a period longer than one or two tax reporting periods to satisfy the holding requirement. On rare occasions, a taxpayer involved in a non-divorce situation may pass away between the sale of the relinquished property and the acquisition of the replacement property. While the heirs may desire a stepped-up basis in the property, unfortunately, that is not the outcome in this particular scenario. However, there is some consolation in the fact that, according to several IRS Letter Rulings, the heirs or the estate may proceed with the 1031 exchange transaction and achieve tax deferral, if not a stepped-up basis.

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Kevin Taylor

The Value of Tax Alpha

In today’s fiercely competitive investment management landscape, financial advisors are encountering challenges from various fronts, including fellow advisors, brokers/dealers, insurance agents, robo-advisors, and self-directed investors. In this environment, where promising excess returns over market performance is unrealistic in the long term, advisors are exploring alternative avenues to enhance their clients’ investment outcomes. While offering other services like financial planning and consultations is undoubtedly valuable, they often don’t directly contribute to improving the investment bottom line over a year. So, how can advisors truly augment investment performance without escalating risk? The answer lies in tax optimization, commonly known as “tax alpha.” Tax alpha involves integrating tax-saving strategies into investment management, providing clients with both permanent and temporary tax savings. These strategies can significantly benefit clients and set advisors apart in the competitive landscape. Permanent Tax Savings Strategies Permanent tax savings are those that don’t necessitate repayment to the tax authorities. One such strategy is avoiding short-term capital gains, where assets held for less than a year incur higher tax rates. Investors can substantially reduce tax liabilities by deferring sales to qualify for long-term treatment. Location optimization is another powerful strategy, offering both permanent and temporary tax benefits. It involves placing investments in the most tax-efficient accounts and aligning investment types with account types to minimize current and future taxes. For instance, holding tax-inefficient investments in tax-deferred accounts and appreciating assets in taxable accounts can lead to significant tax savings. Temporary Tax-Savings Strategies Temporary tax savings strategies, although postponing tax obligations, can still be valuable. Tax-loss harvesting, for instance, involves selling investments at a loss to offset gains, thereby reducing current tax liabilities. Additionally, choosing high-cost lots when selling assets and avoiding year-end capital gains distributions are effective strategies for temporarily lowering taxes. Implementation of Strategies Advisors can implement tax-saving strategies manually, automatically, or by delegating to specialized software or asset management programs. Automated solutions can ensure comprehensive implementation of tax strategies, minimizing the risk of overlooking tax-saving opportunities. Communicating with Clients Advisors must educate clients about the benefits of tax-saving strategies and quantify the tax savings provided. By explaining concepts like location optimization through various channels and providing personalized reports showcasing tax savings, advisors can reinforce the value they bring to their client’s financial well-being. Conscious Buying of Individual Bonds In the pursuit of tax optimization, the selection of bonds plays a crucial role. Certain types of bonds offer distinct tax advantages, making them suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios. Here are some considerations for buying the right kinds of bonds for tax reasons: 1. Tax-Exempt Municipal Bonds: Municipal bonds issued by state and local governments typically offer interest income exempt from federal taxes and sometimes from state taxes as well, especially if the investor resides in the issuing state. These bonds are particularly beneficial for investors in higher tax brackets, as they provide a tax-efficient source of income. 2. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS): TIPS are U.S. Treasury securities designed to protect against inflation by adjusting their principal value based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the interest income from TIPS is subject to federal taxes, the inflation adjustment on the principal is taxable only when the securities are sold or mature. For investors seeking protection against inflation with minimal tax implications, TIPS can be a suitable option. 3. Zero Coupon Bonds: These bonds pay no coupon to investors annually, so there is nothing to tax year in and year out. The entire yield of this bond type is paid out in the form of capital gains – which is far lower than the income tax rate for many investors. While the lack of an income is unappealing for many, the tax strategy is sound for those who are looking for yield with lower taxation. 4. Taxable Bonds in Tax-Advantaged Accounts: Taxable bonds, such as corporate bonds or Treasury bonds, are generally more tax-efficient when held within tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s. Since the interest income from taxable bonds is taxed at ordinary income rates, sheltering them within tax-deferred accounts can help mitigate tax liabilities, allowing for greater compounding of returns over time. In an era where investment services are increasingly commoditized, differentiation is vital for advisors to retain and attract clients. While financial planning remains essential, creating tax alpha can significantly enhance the value proposition for clients. By incorporating tax-saving strategies into investment management, advisors can deliver tangible benefits that positively impact clients’ investment outcomes.

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