InSight

Market InSights:

There Is Too Much Money

You read that right, there is simply too much cash in the capital markets to not see a handful of effects that could impact your investments and plan. The supply of money floating around is massive right now. There is a lot of risk, COVID has us concerned about the economics of the coming year, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore how much cash has been made available.

Even relative to itself, it’s a volume of cash in the money supply that will take at least a decade to settle into long term investments, or be recaptured by the Fed. At the beginning of the year there was roughly $15T in circulation held in cash and cash equivalents. We are in December and the number is closer to $19T of more highly liquid cash in the world. This $4T expansion in only 12 months is remarkable.

Here’s some history on money supply. It took until 1997 to reach the first $4T in circulation, the decade from 2009 to 2019 saw that supply double from $8T to almost $16T (the fastest doubling ever), resulting in a major part of the expansion of the stock market for that decade. Now, in twelve months we have seen a flood of almost 27% more money in the supply than there was at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

One of the best leading indicators for where capital markets are headed, can be found in how much money, especially highly liquid money like cash, is available in the system. This is a reflection of how big the pie is. Usually in investments we are focused on cash flow, and a companies market share – or how effective a company is at capturing cash flow from a given size of market. That’s becoming less relevant as the sheer volume of cash has exploded. The pie is so big right now that there will have to be a a few notable adjustments to make:

InflationWhile I have heard that Jerome Powell has not registered an increase in inflation yet, it is hard to believe that as the newly introduced money will not have an expansive effect on the costs of goods and services. Many mark the inflation rate off the CPI, grievances with that benchmark aside, it would be irresponsible to assume that the basket of securities they mark to market does not see an above average increase as more money finds its way into the same number of consumer goods. Additionally, elements like rents will see a disproportionate increase in the coming decade because while supply of say consumer goods will increase quickly to capture this cash, construction of rental properties is a less reactive market and a slower roll out to correct the market. In the meantime expect rental costs and revenues to see above average inflation figures. 

Interest Rates – Permanently impaired. As I write this the current observation, the 10 year US Treasury is paying 0.9%, a third of where it was even 2 years ago. It is heard to believe that such a robust introduction of cash doesn’t become a permanent downward pressure on fixed income assets for the foreseeable future. Unless there is a formal and aggressive contraction of the money supply, it will take decades for the amount of cash in circulation to let up that downward pressure on bonds. Interest rates in short term assets will be particularly affected as the demand has become less appetizing in contrast to long term debt, and the supply of cash is chasing too small of demand. 

EquitiesThe real benefactor here. It is hard not to believe that over the course of the coming decade, this cash infusion doesn’t trickle its way up and into the stock market and other asset values. Generally the most “risky” part of the market is the historically the benefactor of excesses in cash. Companies will do what they do best and capture this supply of cash through normal operations, this will expand their revenues and ultimately the bottom line. Additionally, the compressed borrowing costs from low interest rates will lower their operating costs. Compound the poor risk reward ratio in bonds and you will see more of those investments seek out stocks, real estate, and other capital assets. This sector will see a virtuous combination of more revenue, and more demand for shares. Expect permanently elevated P/E reads for the time being. 

 

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5 elements in investment risk to know more about

Risk management is crucial for investing because it helps investors identify, evaluate, and mitigate potential risks associated with their investments. Investing involves inherent risks, and understanding these risks is essential to making informed investment decisions that align with an investor’s financial goals and risk tolerance. Here are some important types of risks to consider when managing investments: Concentrated Position Risk: This risk arises when an investor holds a significant amount of their portfolio in a single asset or a small number of assets. The problem with a concentrated position is that it exposes the investor to the risks associated with that particular asset, which may result in a significant loss if the asset performs poorly. Allocation Risk Allocation risk is the risk that an investor’s portfolio is not diversified enough across different asset classes, sectors, or geographies. Diversification is important because it helps reduce the overall risk of a portfolio. A portfolio that is not properly diversified can be vulnerable to significant losses if one asset class or sector performs poorly. Income Risk Income risk is the risk that an investor’s income from investments will not meet their expectations or needs. This risk can be influenced by factors such as interest rate changes, dividend cuts, or economic downturns that affect the financial performance of the assets in an investor’s portfolio. Liquidity Risk Liquidity risk is the risk that an investor will not be able to sell their investments when they need to, or that they will have to sell at a significantly reduced price. This can occur when there is a lack of buyers in the market, or when the asset is illiquid, meaning that it cannot be easily converted to cash. Intrinsic Risk Intrinsic risk is the risk associated with the specific asset itself, such as a company’s financial health, management, or regulatory risks. This risk is inherent in the asset, and it is important for investors to thoroughly research and understand the risks associated with an asset before investing in it. In conclusion, risk management is critical for investing, and it involves identifying, evaluating, and mitigating risks associated with different types of investments. Investors must understand the risks associated with their investments, diversify their portfolios, and make informed decisions that align with their financial goals and risk tolerance.

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FAQ for 1031s

Understanding 1031 Exchanges: Frequently Asked Questions A 1031 Exchange is a powerful tool for real estate investors looking to defer capital gains taxes while reinvesting in like-kind properties. The exchange allows you to sell one investment property and acquire another of similar nature, without immediately recognizing a gain or loss for tax purposes. Below, we cover some of the most frequently asked questions about 1031 exchanges to help you navigate this complex but beneficial strategy. What Qualifies for a 1031 Exchange? Any real estate held for productive use in a trade, business, or for investment can qualify for a 1031 exchange. This includes various types of investment properties, from single-family homes to office buildings or raw land. Importantly, the properties must be of “like-kind,” meaning they share the same nature or character, even if they differ in quality or type. For instance, you could exchange a rental home for a commercial building or vacant land for an apartment complex. However, some assets do not qualify for a 1031 exchange, such as: – Personal residences – Stocks, bonds, and securities – Partnership interests – Property held for sale (e.g., fixer-uppers or inventory) What Is Excluded from a 1031 Exchange? Properties held primarily for sale, such as homes built by a developer or properties flipped for profit, do not qualify. Additionally, assets like stocks, bonds, and notes are excluded, even if used for business or investment purposes. A 1031 exchange also generally doesn’t apply to personal residences, although portions of a property used for business or investment could qualify. This is a common strategy for individuals with home offices or rental units attached to their primary residence. How to Start a 1031 Exchange Getting started with a 1031 exchange is relatively straightforward. First, consult with an exchange facilitator, also known as a qualified intermediary, who will help guide you through the process. Be prepared to provide details on the property being relinquished and the potential replacement properties. The exchange facilitator ensures that funds and transactions adhere to IRS rules and that you avoid constructive receipt of the funds, which could trigger tax liability. Time Limits in a 1031 Exchange Once you close on the sale of your relinquished property, you have 45 days to identify potential replacement properties. You then have a total of 180 days to complete the purchase of the new property. This tight timeline makes it crucial to be organized and prepared to act quickly when identifying and acquiring new assets. How to Choose a Facilitator Selecting a qualified intermediary is essential for a successful 1031 exchange. You can find facilitators through real estate agents, CPAs, attorneys, or online resources. It’s important to ensure the facilitator is not also acting as your agent (e.g., escrow agent or attorney). Look for facilitators with a strong reputation, experience, and proper security measures like a fidelity bond or qualified escrow account to protect your funds. Identification of Replacement Properties When identifying replacement properties, you must follow one of three rules: 1. Three-Property Rule: Identify up to three properties of any value. 2. 200% Rule: Identify more than three properties as long as their combined value does not exceed 200% of the relinquished property’s value. 3. 95% Rule: Identify more than three properties with a combined value exceeding 200% of the relinquished property, as long as 95% of the value is acquired. Costs Involved in a 1031 Exchange The costs associated with a 1031 exchange vary based on the complexity of the transaction. A simple delayed exchange can start at $1,000, while more complex scenarios, such as reverse or improvement exchanges, may cost upwards of $6,500. Vacation Homes and 1031 Exchanges Vacation homes can qualify for a 1031 exchange if they meet the requirements outlined by the IRS in Revenue Procedure 2008-16. The property must be held for at least 24 months and rented out for a minimum of 14 days each year. The homeowner’s personal use of the property must not exceed 14 days or 10% of the days it is rented. Related Party Transactions Related-party transactions are allowed under strict guidelines. The IRS imposes a two-year holding period for both the buyer and seller when exchanging with a related party. These rules are designed to prevent tax avoidance through “basis shifting.” Converting an Investment Property into a Primary Residence It is possible to convert an investment property into a primary residence and eventually sell it using the Universal Exclusion under Section 121 of the tax code. To take full advantage of this strategy, you must own the property for at least five years and live in it for two of those years. This allows you to exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains as an individual or $500,000 as a married couple.

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Kevin Taylor

Pros, Cons, and Risks in a Delaware Statutory Trusts (DST)

Delaware Statutory Trust Pros: As an income source: DSTs are popular with people in general who wish to develop some diversity in their investment portfolio by introducing some real estate components. People like being able to count on the specific return and appreciate not having to deal directly with tenants. They are also extremely popular with 1031 exchange investors for the same reasons but also due to the fact that it can be difficult to identify replacement property within 45 days of the sale of their relinquished property and they have certainty of closing within the applicable 180-day window. As a source for replacement debt (for 1031’s): Most investors participating in a 1031 Exchange require the new investors to have a prorated portion of the debt to be able to replace the portion lost when relinquishing the property. The debt is non-recourse to the investor but allows the investor to hold new debt equal to or greater than the debt retired upon the sale of the relinquished property. A DST can make being assigned this debt an easy prospect. The transfer of the relinquished property to the Qualified Intermediary and the receipt of the replacement property from the Qualified Intermediary is considered an exchange. To be compliant with IRC Section 1031, the transaction must be structured appropriately, rather than being a sale to one party followed by a purchase from another party. As a backup plan (for 1031’s): Exchange investors also sometimes use a DST as a backup in case the primary identified property falls through or the primary property acquisition does utilize the entire exchange value. The DST purchase can absorb the balance. Delaware Statutory Trust Cons: Like any real estate investment, DSTs have traditional risks associated with them. Real estate risk, operator risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk are all common risks associated with the DST investments. The sponsor does due diligence as does the back office of the broker or adviser’s firm, but so should the investor. Asymmetrical Risk: The prospectus typically does a good job of pointing out other risks of each such individual investment. But the location of the investment, the building type and local market, and the quality of the sponsor are all important non-idiosyncratic risks investors should be familiar with in DST investing. Real Estate Risk While it is regulated and sold as a security, at its core, DSTs are real estate, and the risks of any real estate investment apply. Real estate risk in this context is exactly equivalent to the real estate you presently own, including your own home. The local market can drop, the economy can decline, or weather and catastrophe can befall an investment. All of these events will affect the condition, income and expense, and eventual sales price of the property. This is not a risk that is without mitigation. This risk can be diversified by selecting a portfolio of real estate with different building types, locations, and management expertise that understand how to best insure and stagger certain forms of risk. Ensuring you have a well-diversified portfolio in growing markets is one way to mitigate real estate risk. And investors shouldn’t underestimate the importance of spending sufficient time at the outset to ensure the property is a good investment and that it fits well into their InSight-Full® financial plan. Operator Risk A risk unique to DST investors is operator risk. Poor management in all real estate lowers both the income performance and the long-term capital return. When the property is not managed at an optimal level, return is always affected. Both a Property Manager and an Asset Manager manage DSTs, and each is assigned to different roles. A quick review of how management duties are divided: the Property Manager’s job is to implement the business plan, increase income, and lower expenses. As a result, net operating income will increase over time. The Asset Manager watches the property as if he owned it himself, managing the Property Manager with the same goal of increasing net operating income as much as possible, which increases your cash flow and appreciation potential. The Asset Manager also watches the market for sales opportunities and decides when it’s time to sell, reports to investors periodically, and is responsible for keeping the investors abreast of what’s going on with the property and answering any questions. Liquidity Risk: Most Real estate investors have long-term views of their holdings. However, DSTs are somewhat illiquid once acquired and may carry liquidation penalties to accommodate an early exit. So all investors should be prepared to stay invested for the term of the deal and have a long-term disposition if the DST is part of a multicycle tax mitigation scheme. Managing liquidity might be the most important way to manage your exposure to real estate. Having a good idea of our expectations on liquidity can help manage other forms of risk in real estate. For example, investors in the early stages of a bear market who can “wait out” market conditions by lowering their liquidity requirements might find they can outlast negative consequences from other forms of risk. Static Debt: One challenge of a DST structure is that the property cannot be refinanced after the initial loan is in place nor can a lease be revised for a single tenant property. These factors are usually dealt with before the DST formation but sometimes the issues may arise later. If so, solutions can be complicated and expansive. Most sponsors will not change the debt structure of a deal once it is closed. Tax Status and changes to Taxation: As your income and taxation change in life, so too might the success and valuation of your tax mitigation strategy. It’s important to evaluate your long-term goals and expectations and work with a CFP® to make sure the tax scheme makes sense over a range of scenarios. According to the IRS and Revenue Ruling 2004-86, 1031 exchanges that use a DST are structured investments. This revenue procedure includes guidelines for

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