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Kevin Taylor

Obituary: the 60/40 Portfolio

The 60/40 portfolio was born in 1952 in Chicago, IL to Harry Markowitz. It received widespread adoption in the investment community and Nobel Prize accolades. The practice of balancing the correlation between stocks and bonds has died; on March 23rd, 2020. It is survived by a whirlwind of speculation, hedging, and general uncertainty. In lieu of flowers, please send condolences to the risk adverse. If you are familiar with the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio, you know it is largely a relic of the past. For most investors, alternatives and derivatives are likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade. But for decades, investors would reliably count on exposure to 60% stock market equities and 40% bonds to create predictability and smooth out the stock market’s volatility. All with the hope they could still meet retirement goals. This is no longer the case. Cause of Death The cause death is not entirely clear, though there are several compounding maladies: Age: While in its youth the 60/40 performed admirably in its ability to predictably drive income through the ebb and flow of the market. Constantly providing investors with assets in a favorable asset class to be selling, and in turn working additional capital into an out of favor class. The whole process worked swimmingly shifting money back and forth and ever higher. But as this process aged it no longer kept up with changes to the economy. A relentless expansion of the national balance sheet and synchronized expansion money in the supply has eroded the health and reliability of the “40” side of the portfolio and has caused investors to seek higher and higher levels of risks from bonds to accommodate the falling returns. With little to no reprieve from the declining health of bonds, and a limited upside in returns, the predictability of the 60/40 has been questionable as of late. Nothing is more emblematic of this then the current bond markets – in the high yield space debt is priced with almost no accounting for default risks – meaning more money is chasing falling yields and leaving discerning investors to question the urgency. Simultaneously, the negative and near zero rates on treasuries are punishing the most conservative investors. This means the entire bond structure is distorted by the seemingly endless printing of money. Purpose: The 60/40 portfolio was supposed to insulate investors when markets turned sour. Providing a reduction in overall volatility and replacing it with a predictable and stable trajectory. As investors are demanding more and more internal rate of return to meet their investment objective they are either assuming more and more risk without compensation.  Or they’re seeking alternatives that require private equity, hedging, real estate, and complexity to fabricate a stable return and lowered risk. Regarding the risk return balance, investors have been seeking more and more risk for their returns by either pushing dollars into the higher risk bond (as noted above) or out of bonds entirely. Many are finding that to secure their retirement expectations they are going to simply abandon the 60/40 for a higher admixture or equities. And with little or no negative impact for taking on that risk they are seemingly fine running their portfolio hot. In comes alternatives, which has been described as one of the next big trends to cultivate the desired returns for investors. Even Vanguard, a company rooted in the success of the everyday investor, began exploring alternatives, launching a private-equity fund in 2019. This will pose new challenges for mainstream investors who are categorically poor at pricing this unconventional asset class. This could mean that returns will be impacted by fund flows. With the addition of retail investors to the Vanguard platform a systemic pushing up of prices will lower returns for both retail and institutional investors. It will also cause another market where too much money is chasing too few assets. COVID-19: Correlation between asset classes has long been the lynchpin in making the 60/40 (and other Modern Portfolio Theory) concepts work. But as the correlation between bond prices and stock prices are moving in closer and closer lockstep, the advantages of correction are diminishing. No point in time was that more apparent then the sell off in March of every asset class. The volatility seen in stock, bonds and even precious metals during that time showed there is no longer a predictable flight to safety mentality that would give investors an out. Correlation Psychology: Part of this correlation between historically oppositional asset classes comes down to the psychology of the investors. Investors are now, possibly more than they were historically, hypnotized by the returns of the capital markets. So when confronted with a low risk low return asset class like the bond market as a whole they will simply take their money into equities, causing them to invest their bond money with the same reactionary mindset that they invest their equity money. This is causing the both stock and bond markets to become sensitive to emotion and the news cycle like never before. Distortion of risk and “bailouts”: As we have seen and continue to see governments around the world are ready and willing to bail out capital markets. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States. There the practice of supporting financial markets with added liquidity is having a two fold effect that erodes correlation. It is rewarding the riskiest investments like equities; and by printing money it’s adding more supply to bonds while driving yields lower. Essentially, this practice is borrowing risk compensation from bonds to create a floor for equities. Exchange Traded Funds: While there is fantastic value in the vehicle it is limited to equities. See while a fund that contributes more assets to a company with a growing market cap created a virtuous cycle in equities, in bond it creates a bubble. By weighting and ETFs net exposure based on market cap it means the companies that borrow more, get more money…imagine

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Colorado real estate investment professionals, real estate planning, commercial real estate investments
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Kevin Taylor

What to know about investments in industrial buildings

Investing in industrial properties, such as warehouses and manufacturing facilities, can be a lucrative opportunity for investors. However, like any investment, it comes with its share of benefits and drawbacks. Benefits of Industrial Investments: High cash flow potential: Industrial properties often have long-term tenants and can generate high rental income, providing a reliable cash flow for investors. Lower operating costs: Industrial properties typically have lower maintenance costs and fewer tenant turnover expenses compared to other types of commercial real estate. Increasing demand: The growth of e-commerce and logistics industries has increased the demand for industrial properties, making them a valuable investment. Diversification: Investing in industrial properties can provide diversification to an investment portfolio. Drawbacks of Industrial Investments: Location: Industrial properties are often located in less desirable areas, which can affect their value and potential for rental income. Tenant risk: Industrial tenants may have specialized requirements and may be more difficult to replace if they vacate the property. Environmental issues: Industrial properties may have environmental risks or liabilities associated with them, which can impact the property value and require costly remediation. Limited tenant base: The tenant pool for industrial properties may be limited to a specific industry or type of business. The most exciting benefit of investing in industrial properties is the high cash flow potential and increasing demand. The cap rate, or the ratio of net operating income to property value, should be evaluated to ensure a good return on investment. Generally, a higher cap rate indicates a better return on investment, but this can vary depending on the location and condition of the property. There is a moderate level of risk involved in investing in industrial properties. Location, tenant risk, environmental issues, and limited tenant base are all factors that can impact the value and potential for rental income. People typically invest in a variety of industrial properties, including warehouses, distribution centers, manufacturing facilities, and storage units. The specific type of industrial property depends on the investor’s goals and market conditions. In conclusion, investing in industrial properties can offer high cash flow potential and diversification to an investment portfolio. However, careful evaluation of the property and market conditions is necessary to minimize risk and maximize returns.

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Articles
Kevin Taylor

Ways to Identify Financial Abuse in order to Protect Yourself and Family

For many, financial abuse comes long before other forms of domestic violence. It is a sly and gentle form of control that can exist from the very outset of a relationship, over develop as a form of manipulation over time. Helping a person “budget”, managing all the b ills, making all of the investments, are initial forms of control that  might seem innocuous, but can develop the dependency required for financial victimhood. (“How Money Traps Victims of Domestic Violence”) Financial Abuse is really the most damaging form of domestic abuse, but it might be the most enabling for other forms of violence. It usually takes a back seat to physical, verbal, and emotional abuses when being discussed by therapists and counselors. But it is as much a tool of abuse and oppression in a bad relationship as any. The use of financial controls often keeps people in relationships where they are further subject to other forms of abuse. What’s more, financial abuse is often the first sign of dating violence and domestic abuse. Consequently, knowing how to identify financial abuse is critical to your safety and security. Additionally, knowing about the resources available and the professionals who can support your efforts is an early defensive measure available to victims. “Money is among the most powerful weapons of control in a relationship, but little attention is being paid to the financial aspects of domestic abuse.” (Smith) First, let’s Define Financial Abuse In 98% of abusive relationships, the number one reason the victim sites that they stay in the relationship is financial. Yet 78% of rank and file Americans don’t note financial abuse as a form of domestic violence. (“Financial Abuse – PCADV”) At its root, financial abuse involves controlling a victim’s ability to acquire, access, use, and maintain financial resources on their terms. (“How to Identify Financial Abuse in a Relationship”) Those who are victimized financially may be prevented from working outright, forced to take lesser paying jobs that keep them home more, and in many cases aren’t allowed to have their own, “independent” money and accounts. These are all forms of Finacial Abuse. This collection of measures often results in limiting the individual’s ability to generate income in the present and likely in the future. As a result, it limits the inflow portion of the equation in financial abuse. The second layer in financial abuse is limiting any current access to money. A victim may also have their own money restricted or stolen by the abuser. Rarely do victims report having complete access to money and other financial resources (“NNEDV”). When they do have money, they often have to account for their spending. This manifests in a few ways including allowances, reviewing transaction histories on debit and credit cards, and the ever-looming presence of monitoring and controlling the outflow of money. Some of this behavior runs along the lines of proper financial stewardship, which can be the source of the gaslighting. But ultimately, if the power balance in this reviewing of the financial records is not done for planning purposes but rather for control, then the “good” of planning is replaced by the “bad” of financial control and abuse. The results of Financial Abuse Financial Abuse often comes long before other forms of abuse. An early and less identifiable tool of control, financial abuse often prevents victims from seeking help with other forms of abuse later on. Admittedly, financial abuse is less commonly understood and harder to identify than other forms of abuse. Financial abuse is one of the most powerful methods of keeping a victim trapped in an abusive relationship causing further restrictions and harm.  Research shows that victims often become concerned with their ability to provide for themselves financially (“NNEDV”). The presence of children only furthers that concern. Financial insecurity then becomes one of the top reasons victims fail to leave, and/or return to their abusive partners. The continued effects of financial abuse are often devastating. Victims feel inadequate and unsure of themselves due to the emotional abuse that accompanies financial abuse.  Victims often report that their “worth” in the relationship became tied to their financial worth, which was often beyond their control. This forges a vicious cycle of negative self-worth and reinforcement by the inability to provide for themselves. Victims also have to go without food and other necessities because they have no money and limited access to financial support. Financial abuse often delays or makes escape plans impossible, which opens the door to further and more severe forms of domestic abuse. Financial abuse exposes victims to additional forms of abuse and further violence. Without access to money, credit cards, and other financial assets, it’s extremely difficult to do any type of safety planning and escape planning. (OHCHR) For many, the immediate safety plan requires distancing themselves with a discrete location where they can rebuild their lives. When an abuser is particularly violent and the victim needs to leave to stay safe, this is difficult without money or a credit card. This is all according to plan for the abuser. (“How Money Traps Victims of Domestic Violence”) For those who do escape in the short term, financial abuse creates a knock-on effect in the long term. The lack of credit history, permanent place to live, and capacity to earn have been diminished for years. This means the subsequent legal battle becomes harder and tentpoles for developing a financial plan may be non-existent. Upon escape, they often find themselves in a new extreme and find it difficult to obtain long-term housing, safety, and security. Victims often have spotty employment records, ruined credit histories, and mounting legal issues caused by years of financial abuse. Consequently, it’s very difficult for them to establish independence and confidence in their long-term security.  Many victims stay with or return to their abusers due to concerns about financial stability. Tactics Used Isolation is a core tactic of all abusers. So, financial abuse is the goal of isolating victims from money, resources, and people

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