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Second COVID-19 Stimulus Niceties and Notes

We have an agreement, which means we can begin to criticize it and plan for the investment and economic effects. The bill is a litany of half measures, no long term solutions, and likely sets up a couple of battles in the next congress. 

Congress punted on evictions, postponing medical payments until early next year, and there is still an ongoing debate regarding the amount it is issuing in direct payments. The looming liability concern for businesses is still being discussed.

Here is what got done: 

Individual payments for many

Easily the most asked about part of the legislation is the direct payment to individuals that begin going out today. The passed version included $600 going to individual adults with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000 a year based on 2019 earnings.

An increased amount will be going to those that file as heads of households who earn up to $112,500 and couples (or someone whose spouse died in 2020) who make up to $150,000 a year would get twice that amount.

This continuing political battle to raise this number from $600 to $2000 is still going on today, passing with all democrat and some republican support in the house. The senate is questionable as a few Republicans have endorsed the idea, including the two high profile candidates in Georgia – Loeffler, and Purdue.

McConnell has blocked the bill as of 10:20 am as I am writing this article. 

Unemployment benefits

With almost 7% of Americans still unemployed and millions more under-employed, Congress acted to extend multiple programs to help those out of work, albeit at less generous levels than in the spring. Too much of the surprise of those tracking the issue, the final bill doesn’t include the expanded coffers many anticipated and is considered a skinny agreement. 

The agreement would include:

  • 11 weeks, providing a lifeline for hard-hit workers until March 14. 
  • Up to $300 per week (half the amount provided by the original stimulus bill in the spring)
  • Pandemic Unemployment Assistance — a program aimed at a broad set of freelancers and independent contractors — for the same period, providing an additional $100 per week

Better late than never, the expanded agreement is a second band-aid for those Americans that continue to seek employment as employers have halted hiring. The near term negative effect of unemployment cannot be understated. But as we look out to the intermediate (6 months) range seems to hold a fantastic capacity for consumers to unwind pent up spending in short order. The unemployment insurance isn’t expected to be much but will support many Americans who put more and more spending on credit cards in the second half of the year. 

Funds for Child Care, Schools, and Colleges

School budgets have been uniquely impacted by the pandemic and have left their outlook for the year to some impaired:

  • $82 billion for education and education service providers, 
  • That figure includes $54 billion for stabilizing K-12 schools
  • It also includes $23 billion for colleges and universities
  • $10 billion for the child care industry

K-12 schools saw more support than the initial package in dollar terms, and even more than the proposed package in November; however, the funds still fall short of what both sectors say they need to blunt the effect of the pandemic and to support operations in 2021. 

The majority of school districts transitioned to remote learning and as a result, we were asked to make expensive adjustments to accommodate while seeing enrollment drops upend budgets. Colleges and universities are also facing financial constraints amid rising expenses and falling revenue.

Child care centers that are struggling with reduced enrollment or closures will get help to stay open and continue paying their staff. The funds are also supposed to help families struggling with tuition payments for early childhood education. 

Funding for broadband infrastructure

The stress on national broadband has been higher than ever, remote work and education on top of the expanded requirements of technologies like Zoom, have put a major strain on national networks. The legislation includes $7 billion for expanding access to high-speed internet connections. Much of this spending was anticipated in an infrastructure bill, that has been brought forward as a result of the pandemic. Two major points in this part:

  • Half this stimulus is earmarked to cover the cost of monthly internet bills by providing up to $50 per month to low-income families.
  • $300 million for building out infrastructure in underserved rural areas and $1 billion in grants for tribal broadband programs. (Part of another infrastructure bills spending prior to the pandemic) 

Extension of aid for small businesses (PPP)

The bill puts forward $285 billion for additional loans to small businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program. This renews the program created under the initial stimulus legislation and is largely an extension of dollars that were repurposed.

Funding for vaccines and eldercare facilities

The source of concern early in the pandemic and the ongoing requirements to overhaul the elderly care facilities are addressed by this legislation as it sets aside nearly $70 billion for a range of public health measures targeted at elderly care facilities and the distribution of the vaccine. This breakdown includes: 

  • $20 billion for the purchase of vaccines 
  • $8 billion for vaccine distribution 
  • $20 billion to help states continue their test-and-trace program
  • Earmarked funds to cover emergency loans aimed at helping hard-hit eldercare centers.

A ban on surprise medical bills

The Bill supports efforts to help Americans avoid unexpected medical bills that can result from visits to hospitals. The legislation also makes it illegal for hospitals to charge patients for services like emergency treatment by out-of-network doctors or transport in air ambulances, which patients often have no say about. This measure has had some long time support from Democrats and was criticized for not including some provision in the Affordable Care Act. 

Rental protections

One more month of halting evictions is pushed out to the end of January. The Department of Housing and Urban Development separately issued a similar moratorium on Monday that protects homeowners against foreclosures on mortgages backed by the Federal Home Administration. It runs until Feb. 28. This has had several enforcement issues and while the legislation is a fantastic lipservice, the issues of evictions for individuals with a history of rental disqualification from before the pandemic are a continued source of evictions.

The bill DOES NOT include liability protection for business

A criticism by many that Democrats largely held out a provision for liability protection for companies trying to reopen. This element, opposed by labor unions and supported by the national Chamber of Commerce was a sticking point that went without inclusion. The discussion was important because it would allow businesses to follow their local recommendations to reopen to have legal insolation from lawsuits later on. This will continue to be a discussion in congress as a “reopen” is structured and the liabilities for business owners regarding COVID exposures are defined. 

Conclusion:

This gets us through the winter and hopefully the hump of COVID as the vaccine gets rolled out. It still leaves too much for the 2021 congress to cover and cover quickly. What the continued political, monetary, and fiscal landscape reactions look like is still up for debate. The curvature of risk in equities peaks in February (as I write this) so markets are pricing in a 2 month include equities and a political battle come early spring.

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The Hidden Risks of Bond Funds: Diversification and Redemptions

Investors often turn to bonds as a lower-risk alternative to stocks, and for many, bond funds offer a convenient way to diversify their portfolios. However, the notion that bond funds are an inherently safer bet can be misleading. In some circumstances, bond funds can actually carry more risk than the underlying bonds themselves. Let’s dive into how the supposed advantages of bond funds, like diversification and pooled investment, can sometimes be double-edged swords. The Myth of Diversification  The basic principle of diversification is “not putting all your eggs in one basket,” but what if some of the baskets are riskier than you’d like? In a bond fund, your investment is spread across various bonds issued by governments, municipalities, or corporations. While this mitigates the credit risk associated with any single issuer, it also exposes you to sectors or asset classes you might prefer to avoid. Unwanted Risks Bond funds often hold a wide range of assets, including corporate bonds, high-yield (junk) bonds, and even international bonds. For example, if you buy into a fund for its exposure to high-quality corporate bonds, you might unintentionally take on exposure to lower-rated or riskier bonds. You may also be exposed to interest rate risk, credit risk, and even currency risk if the fund invests internationally. Lack of Control  Unlike direct bond investments, where you can pick and choose your level of risk and yield, bond funds don’t offer the same level of control. You rely on the fund manager’s judgment, which may or may not align with your own risk tolerance and financial objectives. The Domino Effect of Redemptions One of the biggest risks with bond funds comes from the potential for large-scale redemptions. Unlike individual bonds, which you hold until maturity unless you decide to sell them, bond funds are subject to the investment whims of all the participants in the fund. Forced Selling If a significant number of investors decide to pull out of a bond fund, the fund may have to sell bonds to provide the cash for redemptions. This is especially problematic if the bonds have to be sold in a declining market, as it locks in losses that are passed on to remaining investors. Liquidity Concerns The need to meet redemptions could force the fund to sell its most liquid assets first, leaving the fund holding a larger proportion of illiquid or lower-quality bonds. This can affect the fund’s performance and potentially increase its volatility. The Importance of Due Diligence The key takeaway here is that while bond funds offer the advantage of professional management and diversification, they are not without their risks. Due diligence is crucial before adding any investment to your portfolio, including bond funds. If you or the person who manages your money insists on just stuffing more money into bond funds, it comes at a substantial cost you you in the form of added fees, performance, and risks.  Investors should carefully read fund prospectuses and reports, understand the risks associated, and possibly consult a financial advisor to see if the fund aligns with their risk tolerance and investment goals. Only then can you make an informed decision about whether a bond fund is a right investment for you.  

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Good Debt vs Bad Debt: When Leverage Actually Builds Net Worth

This is the final post in our three-part series on how net worth is built. Part 1 established the difference between income as a flow and net worth as a stock. Part 2 explained why assets, not salary alone, do the long-term earning. This final installment addresses the most misunderstood balance-sheet tool: debt. The distinction between good debt vs bad debt is not a matter of whether a loan is labeled “mortgage,” “business debt,” or “investment credit.” The correct analysis depends on what the borrowing finances, what it costs after tax, how reliably the asset can produce value, and whether the household can withstand an adverse outcome. Leverage can accelerate wealth creation. It can also accelerate financial distress. It magnifies gains and losses, converts flexibility into obligation, and can force liquidation at the worst possible moment. For many households, paying down debt remains the correct wealth-building decision. 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Vehicle financing on rapidly depreciating assets. Borrowing for vacations, luxury purchases, or recurring expenses. Loans that require future income to remain high simply to maintain current consumption. The same loan can be productive for one household and corrosive for another. A mortgage may be manageable for a family with substantial liquidity, stable income, and a conservative payment-to-cash-flow ratio. The same mortgage may be destructive for a household with concentrated equity compensation, minimal reserves, and a near-term retirement date. The practical benefit of this framework is clarity: debt is evaluated by its economic purpose, cost, structure, and effect on household resilience. How Leverage Can Support Net Worth Growth Salary provides the capacity to save, invest, and service debt. It does not automatically create net worth. Net worth grows when retained income is converted into assets, business equity, home equity, or other claims on future economic value. 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What Constitutes “Like-Kind” in a 1031 Exchange?

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July 17, 2023 No Comments

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