InSight

Market InSights:

Tesla added to S&P500

Today is the last day that Tesla will not be part of the S&P. S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced Tesla’s addition Friday after the market close. Tesla will officially trade as a member of the S&P 500 by the time the market opens on Dec. 21. Today’s buy of Tesla at the market close will likely be the biggest buy order ever.

This means Tesla joins the S&P at today’s closing price, the volatility is already high because it is also the quadruple witching quarterly options expiration.

Some highlights you should know about TSLA’s inclusion:

  1. The addition of Tesla will cause the largest rebalancing ever of the S&P 500 ever – Tesla is the 9th largest company by market capitalization. Because most of the investments that track the SP500 are weighted by market cap, they will be adding more TSLA than anything else. It will represent about 1.5% of the index going forward. 
  2. The liquidity for Tesla will increase, as these passive funds enter the space, the access to TSLA will increase. Both to borrow and trade the access to TSLA should see some much needed liquidity.
  3. This will stabilize the historically volatile stock. The swings both directions on Tesla have been pretty epic over its lifespan. Expect that to temper somewhat. This won’t change Elon’s flagrant tweeting, or the inherently volatile relationship this company has with investors, but over time, such a large holding from passive tools like SPY will bring the range down on its intraday swings. Inversely, TSLA will start to bring its price instability to bear on the SP500 adding to its aggregate volatility.
  4. If you own exposure to U.S. Large Cap ETF’s and mutual funds, you will own more TSLA going forward. There is nothing you need to do to get the exposure. If you already own the TSLA stock outright, it is adding to the exposure. It’s likely time to rebalance.
  5. The SP500 will get a shot in the arm on the P/E ratio – expect this to jump suddenly, there is nothing wrong with the readout, TSLA’s PE (today) is close to 1300. Meaning you have to pay $1,300 for every dollar TSLA earns. Before today the PE on the broader SP500 was 37 (already high) and expect the bellwether that is Tesla to cause that further distortion. This inclusion may permanently impair any comparisons you or your broker has made to the PE of the SP500.
  6. Inclusion of TSLA, will cause some forced selling of other names of make room. Fund will have to make room for Tesla, and will push out 1.5% from the other names to make room.

The closest similarity we can draw is when Yahoo was added. It too was not a member of an S&P small or midcap index prior to its inclusion and had a similar rush to buy when it was included in 1999. As a reminder, this was considered the beginning of the “tech bubble” by many. Yahoo stock rose 50% between the announcement and its entry into the index at the time. 

Some funds have been adding to the TSLA position, in anticipation of this inclusion, but many passive funds are not allowed to until today, as close to the close as possible.

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Market Conditions one of the six critical factors in Real Estate investing

When it comes to investing in real estate, one of the most crucial factors to consider is market conditions. The real estate market is subject to various factors that can impact the profitability of your investment. Here are some reasons why market conditions are an important factor to consider before investing in real estate. Supply and Demand: Market conditions impact the supply and demand of real estate. When there is a high demand for properties and limited supply, property values tend to increase, and rental rates can also increase. In contrast, when there is a surplus of properties, it can lead to a decline in property values and rental rates. By understanding the current market conditions, you can make informed decisions about when and where to invest in real estate. Interest Rates: Interest rates can have a significant impact on the affordability of real estate investments. When interest rates are low, it can be easier to obtain financing for a property, which can increase the demand for properties and lead to increased property values. Conversely, when interest rates are high, it can make it more difficult to obtain financing and lead to decreased demand for properties. Economic Conditions: The state of the economy can impact the real estate market. Economic conditions such as job growth, inflation, and consumer confidence can influence the demand for properties and rental rates. Understanding the current economic conditions can help you identify which real estate markets are likely to experience growth and which ones may be more stagnant. Government Regulations: Government regulations, such as zoning laws and tax policies, can impact the real estate market. For example, changes in zoning laws can increase the value of properties in certain areas, while changes in tax policies can impact the affordability of real estate investments. Keeping up with changes in government regulations can help you identify new investment opportunities and avoid potential risks. In conclusion, market conditions are an essential factor to consider before investing in real estate. By understanding supply and demand, interest rates, economic conditions, and government regulations, you can make informed decisions about when and where to invest in real estate. This knowledge can help you identify opportunities for growth and maximize your returns on investment. It is important to do your research and stay up-to-date with market trends to make the most informed investment decisions.

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The Wizard of OZs: What you should know about opportunity zones.

What is a Qualified Opportunity Zone Property? The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act created special tax incentives for those willing to risk their own capital to improve and develop the real estate in traditionally underinvested sections of the country called opportunity zones. The goal was to raise long term capital by incentivizing investors that historically wouldn’t invest in these types of opportunities due to the inherent risk. They’re designed with the purpose to benefit the denizens of those locations and investors looking for sizable tax incentives to commit capital. The Qualified Opportunity Zone program is the solution that provides that tax incentive for private, long-term investment in economically distressed communities. What makes it a Qualified Opportunity Zone (QOZ)? The definition for this type of zone is “economically-distressed communities where new investments, under certain conditions, may be eligible for preferential tax treatment.” The process for designation of the OZ is pretty straight forward. All 50 states are allowed to submit a list of blocks of low-income tracts across their state based on census data. The Treasury then approves their inclusion in the program or not (most were approved). Plans are now in place with municipal and state governments to commit to projects that bring new construction projects into these areas. What are some unique risks you should be familiar with before you invest in an OZ? Market Liquidity – the markets for these investments are immature. There is a sizable pool of available capital for investment, but most of it is from long view institutional investors. 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Those seeking to “time the market” through this development will be frustrated by the duration of these investments.  Investment Risk – investment in “economically-distressed communities” carries a very unique risk that the investment will not perform on par with other parts of a city or market. Their unique performance risk with these investments will never go away, simply put you are buying into a major turnaround story in some parts of the country that may never come. This is mitigated by a few factors, the managers selecting and overseeing the projects are more important than ever. Picking the right project, with the right builder, in the right neighborhood is more important than ever.  Intent – why are you committing capital to these projects? Is it only for income? Are there parts of the country that have an emotional connection to their success? Is this a good attribute or a negative? I think it’s important to have a real honest sense of purpose in these investments. Not only to help understand and mitigate the risks involved but to help you price in the purpose of this investment. More and more people want to know that the dollars they are investing are being used for societal benefit, but make sure you are handicapping that expectation appropriately. Tax – The tax benefit for OZ’s has a pretty long ark, and the year over year benefit changes over time. Before you enjoy the tax benefits afforded here you should confirm a couple of assumptions. First, that your tax liability is ample enough to enjoy the full benefit, second, that your tax strategy for the next decade marries well with the long term requirement of this investment and third, there are no alternative strategies for a similar tax benefit with less inherent risk. Confirming these three elements of taxation and its accompanying strategy is an essential step for your CFP and CPA before you should consider the upside of this program.  Statutory Risk – the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is current law, and planning for current law is not the issue. Tracking and making sure this new tax strategy stays intact going forward should be on an investor’s mind and having a plan of action if and when conditions change is part of the monitoring process for both your entire plan and this specific investment. Laws change and this opportunity is set to expire 12/31/2026.  Regulatory Risk – as I said before, the inclusion of a region in an opportunity zone is pretty straight forward, but the regulatory requirement for maintaining that acceptance by the U.S. Treasury is still important. Making sure that the project, builder, and fund all stays focused on the regulations that keep it inside the tax purview is eminently important. 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What to know about investments in industrial buildings

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