InSight

Market InSights:

Tesla added to S&P500

Today is the last day that Tesla will not be part of the S&P. S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced Tesla’s addition Friday after the market close. Tesla will officially trade as a member of the S&P 500 by the time the market opens on Dec. 21. Today’s buy of Tesla at the market close will likely be the biggest buy order ever.

This means Tesla joins the S&P at today’s closing price, the volatility is already high because it is also the quadruple witching quarterly options expiration.

Some highlights you should know about TSLA’s inclusion:

  1. The addition of Tesla will cause the largest rebalancing ever of the S&P 500 ever – Tesla is the 9th largest company by market capitalization. Because most of the investments that track the SP500 are weighted by market cap, they will be adding more TSLA than anything else. It will represent about 1.5% of the index going forward. 
  2. The liquidity for Tesla will increase, as these passive funds enter the space, the access to TSLA will increase. Both to borrow and trade the access to TSLA should see some much needed liquidity.
  3. This will stabilize the historically volatile stock. The swings both directions on Tesla have been pretty epic over its lifespan. Expect that to temper somewhat. This won’t change Elon’s flagrant tweeting, or the inherently volatile relationship this company has with investors, but over time, such a large holding from passive tools like SPY will bring the range down on its intraday swings. Inversely, TSLA will start to bring its price instability to bear on the SP500 adding to its aggregate volatility.
  4. If you own exposure to U.S. Large Cap ETF’s and mutual funds, you will own more TSLA going forward. There is nothing you need to do to get the exposure. If you already own the TSLA stock outright, it is adding to the exposure. It’s likely time to rebalance.
  5. The SP500 will get a shot in the arm on the P/E ratio – expect this to jump suddenly, there is nothing wrong with the readout, TSLA’s PE (today) is close to 1300. Meaning you have to pay $1,300 for every dollar TSLA earns. Before today the PE on the broader SP500 was 37 (already high) and expect the bellwether that is Tesla to cause that further distortion. This inclusion may permanently impair any comparisons you or your broker has made to the PE of the SP500.
  6. Inclusion of TSLA, will cause some forced selling of other names of make room. Fund will have to make room for Tesla, and will push out 1.5% from the other names to make room.

The closest similarity we can draw is when Yahoo was added. It too was not a member of an S&P small or midcap index prior to its inclusion and had a similar rush to buy when it was included in 1999. As a reminder, this was considered the beginning of the “tech bubble” by many. Yahoo stock rose 50% between the announcement and its entry into the index at the time. 

Some funds have been adding to the TSLA position, in anticipation of this inclusion, but many passive funds are not allowed to until today, as close to the close as possible.

More related articles:

tax planning
Articles
Kevin Taylor

Year-End Tax Planning Under the Biden Administration

A lack of political clarity means not knowing whether Democrats can push their legislative agenda faster. If Democrats gain control of the US Senate, Republicans won’t have the control to force legislation gridlock. Therefore, without this crucial information year end planning just got much more difficult as the decision to who has control of the Senate is likely not coming until January 5th, 2021. Currently, Republicans are likely to keep control of the Senate; however, if Democrats seize the two seats in Georgia, then a 50/50 split would mean VP Kamala Harris gets the deciding vote which means Democrats control the Senate.  The question is to act now before years end and push a lot of income to 2020 or hold off and risk having to pay almost twice as much in taxes if the tax code legislation gets passed. Under the Biden administration, the current proposal has ordinary income tax rates for those making $400,000 a year or more increasing substantially and long term capital gains tax rate equal to ordinary income tax rates when in excess of 1 million. For those earners earning just over $400,000 the tax hit will be a tough pill to swallow. The tax on long term capital gains would be at ordinary income tax rates to the extent gains are in excess of >$1mm of income (including non-capital gain income).   One strategy is doing a Roth Conversion (or a Back Door Roth). In short, taking money out of your IRA and converting it to your Roth so you pay taxes now for the long term play of those assets growing tax free). Unfortunately, since the Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act this decision is now irrevocable. Previously, you used to be able to do a conversion, wait to see if tax law changed, and if it did where it wasn’t beneficial to have done the conversion then you could recharacterize it and pretend you never did it. Now that conversion becomes irrevocable making the decision a more calculated one.  In 2020, the highest capital gains tax rate is 20%. In 2021, the Biden administration has proposed an increase to 39.6%. This increase has a huge impact on whether or not you take gains now and harvest some of your profits as you could potentially decrease your rate by almost half depending on your tax rate. Now these changes will probably not go into effect until 2022, understanding future tax implications will be key as you head into possibly the last year in the next 4 of low tax rates.  Furthermore, as if the situation isn’t already complicated, the Biden administration proposed eliminating the step-up in basis of capital assets at death. For those looking to pass highly appreciated assets to loved ones so they can capitalize on the step up in cost basis which used to be a great strategy, would now force their beneficiaries to pay all taxes on appreciated assets at death which could push them into the highest bracket. A potential increase in taxes in 2021 means accelerating income and deferring deductions when they’re more valuable in 2021. However, if you’re already itemizing deductions then you may benefit from claiming your deductions this year as the new Biden administration proposal would cap itemized deductions benefit at 28%. It may be beneficial to defer for all income earners any deduction that won’t be counted in 2020 into 2021 if there is a chance the rules change. So for example, if you had a $100 of income at the 37% rate then you’d only get a 28% deduction moving forward.  The Qualified Business Income (QBI) under the Biden Proposal could potentially vanish as well. So for small to midsize businesses that aren’t specified service trade companies this will have a substantial impact on their tax liability. The current QBI is a 20% deduction on income <$400,000 and without that decrease income business owners could face a large jump in their tax rate. This now increases the potential benefit to accelerate business income into 2020.  Another change could come from SALT legislation. What will happen to the $10,000 SALT next year? This year, 2020, most likely nothing is going to change. But next year, if you’ve already reached your 10k limit on SALT then paying them today has zero benefit; however, pushing your estimated tax payments or deferring your property tax till Jan 1, 2021 at least gives you a chance to benefit.  Looking ahead, there could potentially be a large shift in how we use retirement vehicles. The current plans clearly benefit high income earners by making large contributions to IRAs/401ks and reducing their income tax liability dollar for dollar while lower income earners benefit from contributing to Roth IRAs at currently low tax rates and letting that money grow tax-free. However, with the proposal now, the lower your income the more it makes sense to use a Traditional IRA, and the higher the income, the Roth is more likely to give you a better tax break.  The higher your marginal rate is over ~26% the more it makes sense to use a Roth as the new legislation is a flat tax credit for everyone. So if you’re in the 37% tax bracket, there is a negative delta of 11%, so using a Roth is more beneficial. If let’s say you’re in the 10% tax bracket, you’re getting a credit of 26% giving you a positive delta of 16% which then could be used to do a conversion (Roth Conversion) of $16,000 as the credit would pay for your tax bill.  Other changes include: Expanded Child Tax Credit $3,600 for children <6 $3,000 for children 6-16 Expanded Child and Dependent Care credit $8,000 for a single child $16,000 for two or more children First Time Homebuyer Credit $15,000 Advanceable and refundable New Caregiver Credit $5,000 No 1031 exchanges for taxpayers with income > $400,000 (inclusive or exclusive of capital gain income is unknown). For those fortunate enough to have

Read More »
Boulder Financial Planning, Financial Expertise
Articles
Peter Locke

What is an Estate Plan?

Estate planning is one of the most skipped parts of peoples’ financial lives. Whether you’ve put it off because you didn’t know anything about it, it’s boring, expensive, or because you don’t think you have enough assets, I hope this guide will help you understand why you need a plan, common terms, and how to get started. What is an Estate Plan? Your estate is everything you own. It ranges from your business, house, money, and any other personal belongings. Even if you don’t own a lot of stuff, you still need a plan for where all of these things will go. However, your estate plan is more than just a map of where all your possessions will go. It helps dictate where your kids will go, who will take care of you if you’re unable to, who will handle all your affairs if you can’t, who will take your loved pets, etc. It’s a combination of how to pass down assets, to how the end of your life will be managed, and who will handle everything. Documents Included In An Estate Plan Everyone’s estate plan is slightly different, but there are a few specific documents that most have in common. Last Will & Testament – The goal of a will is to lay out your wishes for who will receive what after you pass away. Designation of Guardianship – This document designates who will look after and care for your children in the event you’re unable to. Living Trust – Very similar to a will where you outline the instructions of who gets what. The difference with a trust is that these assets are placed in there while you are still alive. Once you pass away, these assets will be moved without needing probate. Living Will – This document focuses on your preferences concerning medical treatment if you develop a terminal illness or injury that causes you to lose brain activity. Includes things like, feeding tube, assisted breathing, resuscitation, etc. It may also outline your religious or philosophical beliefs and how you would like your life to end. A living will is only valid if you are unable to communicate your wishes Financial Power Of Attorney* – The financial POA is a document that allows an individual to manage your business and financial affairs, such as signing checks, filing tax returns, and managing investment accounts when and if the latter becomes unable to understand or make decisions. Healthcare Power of Attorney* – Designates another individual (typically a spouse or family member) to make important healthcare decisions on your behalf in the event of incapacity. *Power of Attorney’s can be divided into several different categories. General power POA (gives the agent the power to act on behalf of any matters), Limited POA (gives the agent the power to act on behalf of specific matters or events for a specific amount of time) and Durable POA (remains in control of certain legal, property, or financial matters specifically spelled out in the agreement, even after the principal becomes mentally incapacitated.). What actually happens to an estate after you die? Most people have no idea what the process looks like after someone passes away. Those that do, typically understand why these documents are so important. So let’s dive into this so you get a real-life understanding. Everything you own at the time of your death is part of your estate. Your estate then goes through probate. Probate is the process where the court decides what happens to your assets now that you are gone. This is where having estate planning documents becomes so helpful. If you have a will, the court uses this as their guide to splitting up your estate. If for some reason you don’t have one, you are considered to have died intestate and the court uses local laws to decide who gets your assets. Honestly, you don’t want them deciding who gets your stuff! Not only that, probate can cost anywhere from 2-5% of the value of your estate so having a will helps ensure everything goes to the right people. The best way to avoid probate is by naming beneficiaries on all your important accounts like life insurance, retirement accounts, transfer on death accounts (investment accounts), Payable on Death (bank accounts), beneficiary deeds (real estate). Who handles your estate? When you create your will, you get to name someone as the executor of your estate. This person manages your estate through the probate process. They handle unpaid bills, taxes, debt, and anything else that relates to your estate. They also help distribute your estate to all the right people. Typically, people pick their kids, spouse, or siblings to do this for them as it is not a quick and easy job. You definitely want someone you trust to be your executor. If you do not name someone before you die, the judge will choose someone as your administrator (usually spouse then parent or next in kin) Taxes On Your Estate Many people worry about estate taxes, but it only really applies to people with significant wealth. In 2023, the first $12.06 million of your estate is exempt from federal taxes. The only way you have taxes is if you have more wealth than that or if you live in one of the 12 states that have a state estate tax. These states are: Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington. Some of these states have a lower exemption than the federal one so you may have to pay state tax even if none is due federally. You definitely want to be aware of this and plan for it! Your executor is the one who will help handle all the tax bills that could be due. They will use money in the estate to help pay these bills and if they need to liquidate to help pay for taxes, they will. When Do I Need A Trust? Most people have heard

Read More »
boulder colorado financial planners
Articles
Kevin Taylor

Real Estate Investment Due Diligence: Preliminary Assessment

When embarking on a real estate investment journey, one of the first critical steps is the preliminary assessment. This phase sets the foundation for your entire investment strategy and helps you determine whether a property aligns with your goals. In this article, we’ll explore the essential components of the preliminary assessment, including property identification and defining your investment objectives and strategy. Property Identification   1. Location and Geography The adage in real estate, “Location, location, location,” couldn’t be more accurate. The location of a property plays a pivotal role in its potential for success as an investment. Here are key considerations when identifying a property’s location: Neighborhood Analysis: Research the neighborhood’s safety, amenities, schools, and overall quality of life. Is it a desirable area for potential tenants or buyers? Proximity to Services: Evaluate the property’s proximity to essential services such as hospitals, grocery stores, public transportation, and highways. Accessibility can significantly affect property value. Market Trends: Study the historical and current trends in the local real estate market. Is the area experiencing growth, stability, or decline? Are property values appreciating or depreciating? Economic Factors: Consider the economic health of the region. Is there job growth, a diverse job market, or an influx of businesses? Economic stability often translates to higher demand for real estate. Future Development: Investigate any planned or ongoing infrastructure projects, zoning changes, or commercial developments in the area. These factors can impact property values and rental potential. 2. Property Type Real estate encompasses various property types, each with its unique set of characteristics and investment opportunities. Common property types include: Residential: This includes single-family homes, multifamily units (duplexes, apartment buildings), and condominiums. Residential properties often cater to renters or homeowners. Commercial: Commercial real estate includes office buildings, retail spaces, industrial warehouses, and hotels. It offers income potential through leasing to businesses. Industrial: Industrial properties are typically warehouses, manufacturing facilities, or distribution centers. They can provide stable rental income from industrial tenants. Mixed-Use: These properties combine two or more types, such as retail spaces on the ground floor with residential units above. They offer versatility but may require a deeper understanding of multiple markets. Vacant Land: Vacant land can be developed for various purposes, from residential housing to commercial or agricultural use. It offers the potential for significant capital appreciation. Investment Goals and Strategy   1. Identify Investment Objectives Your investment objectives serve as the compass that guides your real estate journey. Common investment objectives include: Rental Income: Generating consistent cash flow through rental properties, which can provide a steady stream of passive income. Capital Appreciation: Focusing on properties in areas expected to experience significant appreciation in value over time, with the intent to sell for a profit later. Portfolio Diversification: Adding real estate to diversify your investment portfolio and reduce risk. Tax Benefits: Utilizing tax advantages available to real estate investors, such as depreciation deductions and 1031 exchanges. Long-Term vs. Short-Term: Determining whether you’re looking for a long-term investment strategy (buy and hold) or a short-term approach (fix and flip) 2. Determine Investment Strategy Once you’ve identified your objectives, it’s crucial to align them with a specific investment strategy: Buy and Hold: Acquiring properties with the intention of holding onto them for an extended period, generating rental income, and potentially benefiting from long-term appreciation. Fix and Flip: Purchasing properties that require renovations or improvements, with the goal of selling them at a higher price after the enhancements are made. Wholesale: Acting as an intermediary between sellers and buyers, typically without taking ownership of the property, and earning a profit through the transaction. Development: Investing in undeveloped land or properties with development potential, where you can build and sell or lease the completed structures. DSTs: A pooled, small-scale, investment vehicle that provides directed exposure to the underlying investment and very limited liquidity. REITs or Funds: Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) or real estate funds, offering diversification and professional management. The preliminary assessment stage of real estate investment lays the groundwork for success. By carefully considering property location, type, investment objectives, and strategy, you set the stage for informed decision-making. This phase is just the beginning of your journey toward achieving your real estate investment goals. Stay tuned for our next articles, where we’ll delve deeper into the various aspects of real estate due diligence to ensure your investments are well-informed and profitable.

Read More »

Pin It on Pinterest