InSight

Market InSights:

When does a Bear look like a Bull? (Pt. 1)

Four things to avoid and four things to embrace when the Bear turns into a Bull.

 

A Bear Rally is a short, swift, updraft in stocks that can end as quickly as it began. Here are the four signals to avoid.

Markets will routinely go through bouts of extreme buying during a bear market. There are several fundamental and technical reasons why markets “rally” at these times amid broader weakness in the market. The market this time has just come off its 4th bear market rally of the 2022 selloff.

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All Four Bear Rallies

These “false” turnarounds can be frustrating to the casual observer. A feeling that the market is random and chaotic can lead people to become frustrated during these moments of euphoria, only to be quickly rebuffed by another violent selloff.

At some point, these turnarounds stay intact and the Bear market rally is seen for what it is, the beginning of the next bull.

Here are some of the important topics to keep in mind to determine if we are looking at a new Bull, or another Bear.

Markets are Money with Emotion – Bear Rally (4)

If markets were perfectly logical they would be rather dull. If smart people reached the same conclusion regarding the future value of dollars (inflation), corporate revenue (earnings), and cost of capital (debt) then the auction that is the market would see a very narrow band of trading. But, it’s not, there is a maelstrom of emotion that accompanies markets and this market is no exception.

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Bear Market Rally Four

The rally from the June lows, to the most recent selloff, started at the Fed meeting in June and ended in mid-August (Bear Rally 4). The “Dovish Pivot” was the culprit – the belief that a small part of Jerome Powell’s update in June was dovish, and the “feeling” that the rate hiking cycle would come to an end sooner. This was both a fundamental shift in markets and an emotional one. One that we at InSight, didn’t share. We either didn’t hear this new dovishness, or we didn’t believe in it. 

This Bear rally was an abrupt reversal of the trend based on emotion, which you might assume is not a reliable and lasting reason for markets to change course, and you would be right. These good times were quickly brought to an end with more commentary from fed chairs and economists in August and were fully doused by Powell’s speech on September, 21st.

Trading markets on emotions is hard, and for that, we look for momentum to confirm our emotions and use the MACD reading to understand when emotional buying has turned into momentum buying. We try not to fight the momentum in markets.

The “Narrow” rally – Bear Rally (2)

When markets turn around, it happens quickly, and no one wants to “miss out” on the bottom. This causes abrupt buying at symbolic (not fundamental) levels or in single stocks or sectors. Some stocks serve as a bellwether for markets, Trains, Chips, and Logistics companies can tell us when the market is healthy and the supply chain orderly. But when one group of stocks march higher alone, it is likely a false rally and they will routinely be brought back with the border market.

The US Technology Index registered a bear market on March 14 when it closed down 19.8% from its peak on Nov. 22. The index then zipped higher, gaining 17.3% as of March 29 before resuming its downward trend. The index lost 27% between its March 29 close and its June 16 low.

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Bear Market Rally Two

There was a “buy the dip rally” in a Bull Market for well over a decade. So, traders and investors have been conditioned to buy up markets trading on lows. Markets registering short-term (1 and 3 month lows) have been quickly reversed since the financial crisis.

The great financial crisis ushered in an era of seemingly unlimited accommodation from the Fed and every dip was met with more and more liquidity from investors and the government. Operating in unison, the market drawdowns were short, and bull rallies were profitable.

The Bear Rally (2) of this cycle was met with no such injection from the Fed and the rally petered out when traders ran out of money. This reversal was confirmed as the market headed lower from Bear End (2) into Bear Start (3). A lack of dry powder meant there was less capacity to continue buying up the market. 

There was no confirmation in the rest of the market, and it was proof that while technology is the most important sector in the SP500, it alone cannot fix weaknesses in other market sectors.

Oversold conditions cause “snapbacks” – Bear Rally (1)

Beware of Oversold conditions that cause bear-market rallies. This is also known as a bear trap, a sucker’s rally, or a “dead cat bounce.” Frequently bottoms are found when conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads “oversold” so traders and investors misinterpret these as bottoms, especially early in a bear market. The Bear Rally (1) is a good example of this:

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Bear Market Rally One

A phenomenon in bear market rallies is the snapback or dead-back bounce. When stock prices deteriorate so quickly, the oversold conditions are met, and the traders look to profit off the short-lived really to come. Oversold conditions are routinely bought up quickly – but they are quickly reversed when the longer trend catches up with the short-term trend. Oversold, or overbought conditions are usually reached when a chart favors the bias of a daily trend over a weekly trend. 

Rallies based on “oversold” conditions very rarely last longer than a couple of weeks. 6-15 trading days at the most, before the more powerful long-term trend, exerts its pressure over the short term.

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Economic Indicators one of the six critical factors in Real Estate investing

Investing in real estate can be a smart way to build long-term wealth and financial stability. However, successful real estate investing requires a thorough understanding of the economic landscape in which you are investing. Economic indicators are important components of this landscape, providing insights into trends and patterns that can inform investment decisions. In this blog post, we will discuss why economic indicators are an important component of investing better in real estate, what economic indicators investors should watch, and how to understand their impact on future investments. Why Economic Indicators are important Economic indicators are important because they provide investors with critical information about the overall health of the economy and the real estate market. They can help investors identify trends and patterns that may impact their investments, such as changes in interest rates, inflation, and consumer confidence. By monitoring economic indicators, investors can make more informed investment decisions and adapt their strategies to changing market conditions. What Economic Indicators investors should watch There are many different economic indicators that real estate investors should watch. Some of the most important ones include: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – GDP is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in a country. Real estate investors should pay attention to changes in GDP, as it can indicate overall economic growth or contraction. Unemployment rate – The unemployment rate is a measure of the percentage of people who are unemployed and looking for work. Real estate investors should watch changes in the unemployment rate, as it can impact consumer confidence and the demand for housing. Interest rates – Interest rates are a measure of the cost of borrowing money. Changes in interest rates can impact the cost of borrowing for real estate investors and impact demand for housing. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – The CPI is a measure of inflation and the change in prices of goods and services. Real estate investors should pay attention to changes in the CPI, as it can impact the cost of living and the demand for housing. Housing Starts – Housing starts are a measure of the number of new homes being built. Real estate investors should watch changes in housing starts, as it can indicate overall demand for housing and the potential for increased supply. Understanding the impact of Economic Indicators on future investments Once investors have identified and monitored the relevant economic indicators, they must understand how to interpret their impact on future investments. For example, if GDP is increasing, this could indicate a growing economy with increased demand for housing. On the other hand, if unemployment rates are rising, this could indicate a slowing economy with decreased demand for housing. Investors should also understand how different economic indicators interact with one another. For example, if interest rates are rising, this could lead to decreased demand for housing. However, if GDP is also increasing, this could offset the impact of rising interest rates by increasing demand for housing. Economic indicators are an important component of investing better in real estate. By monitoring key economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates, interest rates, CPI, and housing starts, investors can make more informed investment decisions and adapt their strategies to changing market conditions. Investors should also understand how different economic indicators interact with one another to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the overall economic landscape. By doing so, investors can maximize their chances of success in the real estate market.

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Tax Free Rental Income 
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How To: Get Tax Free Rental Income 

Let’s paint a picture of what that world might look like if you could successfully put a rental property into a Roth account. With a Roth, growth in the value of the assets is tax free and the income that comes from your rental is tax free. You may have heard of people buying real estate in self-directed IRAs, and while the income and growth is tax deferred, when withdrawn, creates ordinary income. So, imagine if you could get all that growth tax free in a home in Colorado, while also receiving tax free income after the age of 59.5 every month. Seems like a win win to us and our clients love it.  There are four major benefits to this strategy. First, implementing this strategy can lower your effective tax rate by reducing the withdrawal rates from your tax deferred accounts. Since the first dollars you get in retirement can be from your Roth distributions, this will lower your effective tax rate on other incomes like capital gains on taxable assets, distributions from Traditional IRAs, tax deferred annuities, Pensions, 403(b)s, or 401(k). The second additional effect of this strategy is that Roth’s don’t require that you take a Required Minimum Distribution. So there is no need to liquidate the asset at any point during retirement unless you want to. It’s a near permanent way to get rental income throughout the duration of your retirement.  The third less used benefit, is that some income from the property can also be used to buy other income generating assets to help diversify the stream of income and supply you with less income risk in your non-working years.  The fourth benefit is when you pass the assets onto your heirs.  With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, inherited IRAs lost a key feature which previously enabled beneficiaries to prolong taking distributions from inherited IRAs over their own life expectancy or the life expectancy of the deceased, and requiring them to take it out over 10 years. This forces beneficiaries that may have an unfavorable tax situation into an even more unfavorable tax liability as they’re forced to take on ordinary income from these accounts. However, with Roth accounts, although there are Required Minimum Distributions for inheriting a Roth, the distributions are tax free which is a huge benefit to the beneficiaries. There are some exceptions to this rule but generally speaking, inheriting Roth Accounts for most people is better than inheriting IRAs.  We think this is a near permanent endowment of tax free income, with the ability to rise with inflation, through the entirety of your retirement. I have a perfect storm of desired qualities for most investors. There are however, a few challenges to accomplishing this task, and it depends on the amount of money available in your Roth currently. Because of income and contribution limits to Roth’s most people will not amass the required liquidity in their Roth to be able to make the down payment on a piece of real estate, fewer still will have the assets to be able to buy the property outright.  There are four techniques that we employ this strategy which you should become familiar with.  Backdoor Roth Contributions, or a Mega Backdoor Roth Self Directed Roth’s Asset Lending in Self Directed Roth’s Non traded REIT’s Backdoor Roth Contributions, or a Mega Backdoor Roth jumpstart Tax Free Rental Income  Getting the requisite assets into a Roth can be a bit of a trick. The income limits keep most affluent earners from being able to contribute at all. 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They provide the right type of tax treatment for assets we like to use. There are however, several compliance and custodian issues that you should be aware of to prevent the asset from being declassified as either an IRA or Roth asset. Oversight of these rules and administration of the accounts is something best overseen by a CFP® professional who understands your situation and can help you stay compliant at all times.  Asset Borrowing in Self Directed Roth’s There are

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Mastering Reverse 1031 Exchanges: Unlocking Opportunities When Timing Matters Most

Reverse 1031 Exchange Rules Under IRS rules, Internal Revenue Code Section 1031 states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the exchange of property held for productive use in a trade or business or for investment if such property is exchanged solely for property of like kind which is to be held for productive use in a trade or business or for investment.” In a typical 1031 Exchange, a taxpayer must sell the old property, known as the Relinquished Property, before acquiring the new property, the Replacement Property. However, due to various circumstances, a taxpayer may risk losing the opportunity to purchase the desired Replacement Property if its closing date comes before the sale of the Relinquished Property. Sometimes, the Relinquished Property might already be under contract. Still, the closing is scheduled after the Replacement Property purchase or the Relinquished Property may not yet be listed or under contract. In such cases, taxpayers can utilize a Reverse Exchange. What is a Reverse Exchange? A “Reverse Exchange” occurs when a taxpayer needs to secure the Replacement Property before the sale of the Relinquished Property. The key to making a Reverse Exchange work is to restructure it so that it no longer appears “reverse” at all. In 2000, the IRS introduced a set of guidelines providing a “safe harbor” for Reverse Exchanges under Rev. Proc. 2000-37. These are commonly known as “parking arrangements,” where either: (i) a property is purchased and “parked” by an exchange accommodation title holder (EAT) for the taxpayer’s benefit until the taxpayer can arrange the sale of the Relinquished Property, or (ii) the taxpayer transfers the Relinquished Property to an EAT, receives the Replacement Property, and later the EAT transfers the Relinquished Property to the buyer. Following these safe harbor rules allows taxpayers to structure a Reverse Exchange in compliance with IRS requirements. Reverse Exchange Process Let’s walk through how a Reverse 1031 Exchange works. Essentially, the IRS has made it easier than it may seem. By utilizing an EAT, a taxpayer can have the Replacement Property “parked” and held on their behalf. They then have up to 180 days to sell the Relinquished Property and complete the exchange. Since the taxpayer does not directly acquire the Replacement Property before the sale of the Relinquished Property, the transaction is executed in the correct sequence as per IRS rules. Though it may seem like a bit of “smoke and mirrors,” the technique is authorized by the IRS. Financing in a Reverse Exchange When considering a Reverse 1031 Exchange, financing is an important aspect. The EAT does not provide the funds to purchase the replacement property. Instead, this can be achieved through a loan from the taxpayer to the EAT, or via a bank loan. The loan is typically paid off once the Relinquished Property sells. During the period when the Replacement Property is held by the EAT, it is leased to the taxpayer, allowing them to sublease it to tenants, collect rent, and manage expenses. Ultimately, the EAT earns a fee for its services, while the taxpayer retains the economic benefits. Cost of a Reverse Exchange The cost of a Reverse 1031 Exchange varies based on several factors, including property type (residential, commercial, industrial), property value, and the source of financing (taxpayer-funded or bank-financed). Additional considerations, such as environmental issues, may also impact costs. Since the exchange company holds the title, these variables play a role in determining the overall expense. Relationship of Reverse Exchange and Forward Exchange There is often confusion between Reverse Exchanges and Forward Exchanges. Taxpayers may ask, “Why do I need a Forward Exchange if I’m doing (and paying for) a Reverse Exchange?” Although they relate to a single transaction, they are separate but essential parts. The Reverse Exchange allows the Replacement Property to be secured, preserving the taxpayer’s ability to exchange for it. Technically, a Reverse Exchange is not a 1031 Exchange but rather a mechanism to facilitate one. The Forward Exchange is the actual 1031 Exchange, where the Relinquished Property is sold and replaced. Both processes are necessary to complete a successful Reverse Exchange. The Forward Exchange is handled by a Qualified Intermediary under a different set of IRS rules than those governing an EAT providing Reverse Exchange services. It is possible to use a single company, like InSight 1031, to act as both the EAT and the Qualified Intermediary, or separate companies specializing in one type of exchange service. The content in this blog is intended for informational purposes only. It is not to be construed as investment, legal, tax, or compliance advice. InSight 1031 operates as a Qualified Intermediary, facilitating tax-deferred exchanges under Section 1031 and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advisory services.

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