InSight

Market InSights:

When does a Bear look like a Bull? (Pt. 1)

Four things to avoid and four things to embrace when the Bear turns into a Bull.

 

A Bear Rally is a short, swift, updraft in stocks that can end as quickly as it began. Here are the four signals to avoid.

Markets will routinely go through bouts of extreme buying during a bear market. There are several fundamental and technical reasons why markets “rally” at these times amid broader weakness in the market. The market this time has just come off its 4th bear market rally of the 2022 selloff.

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All Four Bear Rallies

These “false” turnarounds can be frustrating to the casual observer. A feeling that the market is random and chaotic can lead people to become frustrated during these moments of euphoria, only to be quickly rebuffed by another violent selloff.

At some point, these turnarounds stay intact and the Bear market rally is seen for what it is, the beginning of the next bull.

Here are some of the important topics to keep in mind to determine if we are looking at a new Bull, or another Bear.

Markets are Money with Emotion – Bear Rally (4)

If markets were perfectly logical they would be rather dull. If smart people reached the same conclusion regarding the future value of dollars (inflation), corporate revenue (earnings), and cost of capital (debt) then the auction that is the market would see a very narrow band of trading. But, it’s not, there is a maelstrom of emotion that accompanies markets and this market is no exception.

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Bear Market Rally Four

The rally from the June lows, to the most recent selloff, started at the Fed meeting in June and ended in mid-August (Bear Rally 4). The “Dovish Pivot” was the culprit – the belief that a small part of Jerome Powell’s update in June was dovish, and the “feeling” that the rate hiking cycle would come to an end sooner. This was both a fundamental shift in markets and an emotional one. One that we at InSight, didn’t share. We either didn’t hear this new dovishness, or we didn’t believe in it. 

This Bear rally was an abrupt reversal of the trend based on emotion, which you might assume is not a reliable and lasting reason for markets to change course, and you would be right. These good times were quickly brought to an end with more commentary from fed chairs and economists in August and were fully doused by Powell’s speech on September, 21st.

Trading markets on emotions is hard, and for that, we look for momentum to confirm our emotions and use the MACD reading to understand when emotional buying has turned into momentum buying. We try not to fight the momentum in markets.

The “Narrow” rally – Bear Rally (2)

When markets turn around, it happens quickly, and no one wants to “miss out” on the bottom. This causes abrupt buying at symbolic (not fundamental) levels or in single stocks or sectors. Some stocks serve as a bellwether for markets, Trains, Chips, and Logistics companies can tell us when the market is healthy and the supply chain orderly. But when one group of stocks march higher alone, it is likely a false rally and they will routinely be brought back with the border market.

The US Technology Index registered a bear market on March 14 when it closed down 19.8% from its peak on Nov. 22. The index then zipped higher, gaining 17.3% as of March 29 before resuming its downward trend. The index lost 27% between its March 29 close and its June 16 low.

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Bear Market Rally Two

There was a “buy the dip rally” in a Bull Market for well over a decade. So, traders and investors have been conditioned to buy up markets trading on lows. Markets registering short-term (1 and 3 month lows) have been quickly reversed since the financial crisis.

The great financial crisis ushered in an era of seemingly unlimited accommodation from the Fed and every dip was met with more and more liquidity from investors and the government. Operating in unison, the market drawdowns were short, and bull rallies were profitable.

The Bear Rally (2) of this cycle was met with no such injection from the Fed and the rally petered out when traders ran out of money. This reversal was confirmed as the market headed lower from Bear End (2) into Bear Start (3). A lack of dry powder meant there was less capacity to continue buying up the market. 

There was no confirmation in the rest of the market, and it was proof that while technology is the most important sector in the SP500, it alone cannot fix weaknesses in other market sectors.

Oversold conditions cause “snapbacks” – Bear Rally (1)

Beware of Oversold conditions that cause bear-market rallies. This is also known as a bear trap, a sucker’s rally, or a “dead cat bounce.” Frequently bottoms are found when conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads “oversold” so traders and investors misinterpret these as bottoms, especially early in a bear market. The Bear Rally (1) is a good example of this:

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Bear Market Rally One

A phenomenon in bear market rallies is the snapback or dead-back bounce. When stock prices deteriorate so quickly, the oversold conditions are met, and the traders look to profit off the short-lived really to come. Oversold conditions are routinely bought up quickly – but they are quickly reversed when the longer trend catches up with the short-term trend. Oversold, or overbought conditions are usually reached when a chart favors the bias of a daily trend over a weekly trend. 

Rallies based on “oversold” conditions very rarely last longer than a couple of weeks. 6-15 trading days at the most, before the more powerful long-term trend, exerts its pressure over the short term.

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When it comes to estate planning, trust-owned homes are a common tool for avoiding probate and ensuring a smooth transfer of assets. However, they can unintentionally create insurance issues if the property title and insurance policy aren’t aligned. A recent surge in disputes following natural disasters, like the LA fires, has highlighted the importance of properly titling homes and maintaining consistent insurance coverage. The Risk of Misaligned Titles and Policies One of the most common problems arises when a home is titled in the name of a trust, but the homeowner fails to update their insurance policy to reflect this ownership structure. For example, if the home is titled under the “Smith Family Trust” but the insurance policy is issued in John Smith’s individual name, this mismatch can lead to a denied or disputed claim. In a case reported after the LA fires, a homeowner discovered their insurance claim was denied because the property was titled under a trust, yet the insurance policy only listed the individual homeowner as the insured party. The insurer argued that the policyholder did not technically own the property, creating a gray area regarding coverage. While some insurers may still honor the claim under certain circumstances, others may deny it outright, leading to financial loss and protracted legal battles. Why Adding the Trust or LLC Matters To prevent these issues, it’s essential to ensure the ownership structure on the title aligns with the insurance policy. If a home is owned by a trust or an LLC, the trust or LLC should be explicitly named as an additional insured on the policy. An insurance carrier recently clarified, “A claim can potentially be denied if the home is titled in a trust or LLC but the insurance policy is under the individual homeowner’s name. The ownership structure as indicated on the title must match the named insured on the policy to ensure proper coverage. To avoid a dispute, it’s crucial to add the trust or LLC as an additional insured on the policy.” This small adjustment can make a significant difference in avoiding disputes during what could already be a stressful time. Issues With Missing or Incorrect Beneficiaries Another related issue is improper or missing contingent beneficiaries. For example, let’s say a homeowner lists themselves as the primary beneficiary of a life insurance policy intended to pay off the mortgage on a trust-owned property. If the primary beneficiary passes away and no contingent beneficiary is named, the payout could default to the estate rather than the intended trust. This creates unnecessary probate complications and may fail to achieve the homeowner’s estate planning goals. Similarly, issues can arise with retirement accounts and other assets. For instance, naming the trust as a beneficiary of a 401(k) without consulting an estate planning attorney could trigger adverse tax consequences, depending on the trust type and structure. Best Practices to Protect Your Home and Estate To avoid these pitfalls, homeowners should follow these best practices: Align Title and Insurance: Ensure that the named insured on your homeowner’s insurance policy matches the property title. If the title is held in a trust or LLC, add the entity as an additional insured. Review Beneficiary Designations: Regularly review all insurance and financial accounts to ensure primary and contingent beneficiaries are properly named. This includes life insurance, retirement accounts, and annuities. Consult Professionals: Work with an estate planning attorney and insurance agent to confirm that your trust and insurance policies are structured correctly and meet your goals. Update Policies Promptly: Whenever there’s a change in title—such as transferring a home into a trust—notify your insurance provider immediately and request the necessary changes to the policy. Include Contingencies: Always name contingent beneficiaries to avoid complications if the primary beneficiary is unavailable. This ensures your assets are distributed as intended, even in unforeseen circumstances. Real-Life Consequences of Oversights To illustrate the importance of these steps, consider the following scenarios: Case 1: Denied Insurance Claim A homeowner’s property was destroyed in a wildfire. The home was titled in a family trust, but the insurance policy was still in the individual’s name. The insurer denied the claim, stating the trust-owned property wasn’t covered. This forced the homeowner into lengthy legal proceedings and delayed rebuilding efforts. 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