InSight

Market InSights:

When does a Bear look like a Bull? (Pt. 1)

Four things to avoid and four things to embrace when the Bear turns into a Bull.

 

A Bear Rally is a short, swift, updraft in stocks that can end as quickly as it began. Here are the four signals to avoid.

Markets will routinely go through bouts of extreme buying during a bear market. There are several fundamental and technical reasons why markets “rally” at these times amid broader weakness in the market. The market this time has just come off its 4th bear market rally of the 2022 selloff.

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All Four Bear Rallies

These “false” turnarounds can be frustrating to the casual observer. A feeling that the market is random and chaotic can lead people to become frustrated during these moments of euphoria, only to be quickly rebuffed by another violent selloff.

At some point, these turnarounds stay intact and the Bear market rally is seen for what it is, the beginning of the next bull.

Here are some of the important topics to keep in mind to determine if we are looking at a new Bull, or another Bear.

Markets are Money with Emotion – Bear Rally (4)

If markets were perfectly logical they would be rather dull. If smart people reached the same conclusion regarding the future value of dollars (inflation), corporate revenue (earnings), and cost of capital (debt) then the auction that is the market would see a very narrow band of trading. But, it’s not, there is a maelstrom of emotion that accompanies markets and this market is no exception.

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Bear Market Rally Four

The rally from the June lows, to the most recent selloff, started at the Fed meeting in June and ended in mid-August (Bear Rally 4). The “Dovish Pivot” was the culprit – the belief that a small part of Jerome Powell’s update in June was dovish, and the “feeling” that the rate hiking cycle would come to an end sooner. This was both a fundamental shift in markets and an emotional one. One that we at InSight, didn’t share. We either didn’t hear this new dovishness, or we didn’t believe in it. 

This Bear rally was an abrupt reversal of the trend based on emotion, which you might assume is not a reliable and lasting reason for markets to change course, and you would be right. These good times were quickly brought to an end with more commentary from fed chairs and economists in August and were fully doused by Powell’s speech on September, 21st.

Trading markets on emotions is hard, and for that, we look for momentum to confirm our emotions and use the MACD reading to understand when emotional buying has turned into momentum buying. We try not to fight the momentum in markets.

The “Narrow” rally – Bear Rally (2)

When markets turn around, it happens quickly, and no one wants to “miss out” on the bottom. This causes abrupt buying at symbolic (not fundamental) levels or in single stocks or sectors. Some stocks serve as a bellwether for markets, Trains, Chips, and Logistics companies can tell us when the market is healthy and the supply chain orderly. But when one group of stocks march higher alone, it is likely a false rally and they will routinely be brought back with the border market.

The US Technology Index registered a bear market on March 14 when it closed down 19.8% from its peak on Nov. 22. The index then zipped higher, gaining 17.3% as of March 29 before resuming its downward trend. The index lost 27% between its March 29 close and its June 16 low.

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Bear Market Rally Two

There was a “buy the dip rally” in a Bull Market for well over a decade. So, traders and investors have been conditioned to buy up markets trading on lows. Markets registering short-term (1 and 3 month lows) have been quickly reversed since the financial crisis.

The great financial crisis ushered in an era of seemingly unlimited accommodation from the Fed and every dip was met with more and more liquidity from investors and the government. Operating in unison, the market drawdowns were short, and bull rallies were profitable.

The Bear Rally (2) of this cycle was met with no such injection from the Fed and the rally petered out when traders ran out of money. This reversal was confirmed as the market headed lower from Bear End (2) into Bear Start (3). A lack of dry powder meant there was less capacity to continue buying up the market. 

There was no confirmation in the rest of the market, and it was proof that while technology is the most important sector in the SP500, it alone cannot fix weaknesses in other market sectors.

Oversold conditions cause “snapbacks” – Bear Rally (1)

Beware of Oversold conditions that cause bear-market rallies. This is also known as a bear trap, a sucker’s rally, or a “dead cat bounce.” Frequently bottoms are found when conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads “oversold” so traders and investors misinterpret these as bottoms, especially early in a bear market. The Bear Rally (1) is a good example of this:

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Bear Market Rally One

A phenomenon in bear market rallies is the snapback or dead-back bounce. When stock prices deteriorate so quickly, the oversold conditions are met, and the traders look to profit off the short-lived really to come. Oversold conditions are routinely bought up quickly – but they are quickly reversed when the longer trend catches up with the short-term trend. Oversold, or overbought conditions are usually reached when a chart favors the bias of a daily trend over a weekly trend. 

Rallies based on “oversold” conditions very rarely last longer than a couple of weeks. 6-15 trading days at the most, before the more powerful long-term trend, exerts its pressure over the short term.

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Kevin Taylor

Ways to Identify Financial Abuse in order to Protect Yourself and Family

For many, financial abuse comes long before other forms of domestic violence. It is a sly and gentle form of control that can exist from the very outset of a relationship, over develop as a form of manipulation over time. Helping a person “budget”, managing all the b ills, making all of the investments, are initial forms of control that  might seem innocuous, but can develop the dependency required for financial victimhood. (“How Money Traps Victims of Domestic Violence”) Financial Abuse is really the most damaging form of domestic abuse, but it might be the most enabling for other forms of violence. It usually takes a back seat to physical, verbal, and emotional abuses when being discussed by therapists and counselors. But it is as much a tool of abuse and oppression in a bad relationship as any. The use of financial controls often keeps people in relationships where they are further subject to other forms of abuse. What’s more, financial abuse is often the first sign of dating violence and domestic abuse. Consequently, knowing how to identify financial abuse is critical to your safety and security. Additionally, knowing about the resources available and the professionals who can support your efforts is an early defensive measure available to victims. “Money is among the most powerful weapons of control in a relationship, but little attention is being paid to the financial aspects of domestic abuse.” (Smith) First, let’s Define Financial Abuse In 98% of abusive relationships, the number one reason the victim sites that they stay in the relationship is financial. Yet 78% of rank and file Americans don’t note financial abuse as a form of domestic violence. (“Financial Abuse – PCADV”) At its root, financial abuse involves controlling a victim’s ability to acquire, access, use, and maintain financial resources on their terms. (“How to Identify Financial Abuse in a Relationship”) Those who are victimized financially may be prevented from working outright, forced to take lesser paying jobs that keep them home more, and in many cases aren’t allowed to have their own, “independent” money and accounts. These are all forms of Finacial Abuse. This collection of measures often results in limiting the individual’s ability to generate income in the present and likely in the future. As a result, it limits the inflow portion of the equation in financial abuse. The second layer in financial abuse is limiting any current access to money. A victim may also have their own money restricted or stolen by the abuser. Rarely do victims report having complete access to money and other financial resources (“NNEDV”). When they do have money, they often have to account for their spending. This manifests in a few ways including allowances, reviewing transaction histories on debit and credit cards, and the ever-looming presence of monitoring and controlling the outflow of money. Some of this behavior runs along the lines of proper financial stewardship, which can be the source of the gaslighting. But ultimately, if the power balance in this reviewing of the financial records is not done for planning purposes but rather for control, then the “good” of planning is replaced by the “bad” of financial control and abuse. The results of Financial Abuse Financial Abuse often comes long before other forms of abuse. An early and less identifiable tool of control, financial abuse often prevents victims from seeking help with other forms of abuse later on. Admittedly, financial abuse is less commonly understood and harder to identify than other forms of abuse. Financial abuse is one of the most powerful methods of keeping a victim trapped in an abusive relationship causing further restrictions and harm.  Research shows that victims often become concerned with their ability to provide for themselves financially (“NNEDV”). The presence of children only furthers that concern. Financial insecurity then becomes one of the top reasons victims fail to leave, and/or return to their abusive partners. The continued effects of financial abuse are often devastating. Victims feel inadequate and unsure of themselves due to the emotional abuse that accompanies financial abuse.  Victims often report that their “worth” in the relationship became tied to their financial worth, which was often beyond their control. This forges a vicious cycle of negative self-worth and reinforcement by the inability to provide for themselves. Victims also have to go without food and other necessities because they have no money and limited access to financial support. Financial abuse often delays or makes escape plans impossible, which opens the door to further and more severe forms of domestic abuse. Financial abuse exposes victims to additional forms of abuse and further violence. Without access to money, credit cards, and other financial assets, it’s extremely difficult to do any type of safety planning and escape planning. (OHCHR) For many, the immediate safety plan requires distancing themselves with a discrete location where they can rebuild their lives. When an abuser is particularly violent and the victim needs to leave to stay safe, this is difficult without money or a credit card. This is all according to plan for the abuser. (“How Money Traps Victims of Domestic Violence”) For those who do escape in the short term, financial abuse creates a knock-on effect in the long term. The lack of credit history, permanent place to live, and capacity to earn have been diminished for years. This means the subsequent legal battle becomes harder and tentpoles for developing a financial plan may be non-existent. Upon escape, they often find themselves in a new extreme and find it difficult to obtain long-term housing, safety, and security. Victims often have spotty employment records, ruined credit histories, and mounting legal issues caused by years of financial abuse. Consequently, it’s very difficult for them to establish independence and confidence in their long-term security.  Many victims stay with or return to their abusers due to concerns about financial stability. Tactics Used Isolation is a core tactic of all abusers. So, financial abuse is the goal of isolating victims from money, resources, and people

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Kevin Taylor

Obituary: the 60/40 Portfolio

The 60/40 portfolio was born in 1952 in Chicago, IL to Harry Markowitz. It received widespread adoption in the investment community and Nobel Prize accolades. The practice of balancing the correlation between stocks and bonds has died; on March 23rd, 2020. It is survived by a whirlwind of speculation, hedging, and general uncertainty. In lieu of flowers, please send condolences to the risk adverse. If you are familiar with the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio, you know it is largely a relic of the past. For most investors, alternatives and derivatives are likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade. But for decades, investors would reliably count on exposure to 60% stock market equities and 40% bonds to create predictability and smooth out the stock market’s volatility. All with the hope they could still meet retirement goals. This is no longer the case. Cause of Death The cause death is not entirely clear, though there are several compounding maladies: Age: While in its youth the 60/40 performed admirably in its ability to predictably drive income through the ebb and flow of the market. Constantly providing investors with assets in a favorable asset class to be selling, and in turn working additional capital into an out of favor class. The whole process worked swimmingly shifting money back and forth and ever higher. But as this process aged it no longer kept up with changes to the economy. A relentless expansion of the national balance sheet and synchronized expansion money in the supply has eroded the health and reliability of the “40” side of the portfolio and has caused investors to seek higher and higher levels of risks from bonds to accommodate the falling returns. With little to no reprieve from the declining health of bonds, and a limited upside in returns, the predictability of the 60/40 has been questionable as of late. Nothing is more emblematic of this then the current bond markets – in the high yield space debt is priced with almost no accounting for default risks – meaning more money is chasing falling yields and leaving discerning investors to question the urgency. Simultaneously, the negative and near zero rates on treasuries are punishing the most conservative investors. This means the entire bond structure is distorted by the seemingly endless printing of money. Purpose: The 60/40 portfolio was supposed to insulate investors when markets turned sour. Providing a reduction in overall volatility and replacing it with a predictable and stable trajectory. As investors are demanding more and more internal rate of return to meet their investment objective they are either assuming more and more risk without compensation.  Or they’re seeking alternatives that require private equity, hedging, real estate, and complexity to fabricate a stable return and lowered risk. Regarding the risk return balance, investors have been seeking more and more risk for their returns by either pushing dollars into the higher risk bond (as noted above) or out of bonds entirely. Many are finding that to secure their retirement expectations they are going to simply abandon the 60/40 for a higher admixture or equities. And with little or no negative impact for taking on that risk they are seemingly fine running their portfolio hot. In comes alternatives, which has been described as one of the next big trends to cultivate the desired returns for investors. Even Vanguard, a company rooted in the success of the everyday investor, began exploring alternatives, launching a private-equity fund in 2019. This will pose new challenges for mainstream investors who are categorically poor at pricing this unconventional asset class. This could mean that returns will be impacted by fund flows. With the addition of retail investors to the Vanguard platform a systemic pushing up of prices will lower returns for both retail and institutional investors. It will also cause another market where too much money is chasing too few assets. COVID-19: Correlation between asset classes has long been the lynchpin in making the 60/40 (and other Modern Portfolio Theory) concepts work. But as the correlation between bond prices and stock prices are moving in closer and closer lockstep, the advantages of correction are diminishing. No point in time was that more apparent then the sell off in March of every asset class. The volatility seen in stock, bonds and even precious metals during that time showed there is no longer a predictable flight to safety mentality that would give investors an out. Correlation Psychology: Part of this correlation between historically oppositional asset classes comes down to the psychology of the investors. Investors are now, possibly more than they were historically, hypnotized by the returns of the capital markets. So when confronted with a low risk low return asset class like the bond market as a whole they will simply take their money into equities, causing them to invest their bond money with the same reactionary mindset that they invest their equity money. This is causing the both stock and bond markets to become sensitive to emotion and the news cycle like never before. Distortion of risk and “bailouts”: As we have seen and continue to see governments around the world are ready and willing to bail out capital markets. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States. There the practice of supporting financial markets with added liquidity is having a two fold effect that erodes correlation. It is rewarding the riskiest investments like equities; and by printing money it’s adding more supply to bonds while driving yields lower. Essentially, this practice is borrowing risk compensation from bonds to create a floor for equities. Exchange Traded Funds: While there is fantastic value in the vehicle it is limited to equities. See while a fund that contributes more assets to a company with a growing market cap created a virtuous cycle in equities, in bond it creates a bubble. By weighting and ETFs net exposure based on market cap it means the companies that borrow more, get more money…imagine

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Kevin Taylor

The 8 Financial Musts when Considering a Divorce

Learn and document what you already have. First work to become familiar with what is known. List out every account that you have, its location, the current balance, if and how it’s invested, and what the liquidity situation is like. This includes all of your personal 401(k)’s IRA, and other retirement accounts and pensions: as well as the account you hold jointly. Don’t forget to document the debts you share as well, get as close to a proper accounting of assets that you are aware of as possible. Year-end statements in a digital vault are a great way to do this. You can’t protect what you don’t know is out there. Then begin an effort to uncover the known-unknowns, this includes your spouse’s account you are aware of that exists but are unsure of the balance, the investments, the liquidity, and other details regarding their mobility and value. These accounts also include the balances in any operating business that might be involved. These accounts will be a little harder to uncover, but not impossible. Ballpark figures are good, but try to get as accurate of an understanding as possible. In most cases, a CFP® can help ask the right questions to uncover these details. The hardest part will be documenting the unknown-unknowns. These are accounts you may not be aware of today. They require that you both find out about their existence and the requisite uses and balances. Because of the nature of these accounts, if you feel they may exist, you will almost certainly need a CFP® and/or a CPA® to uncover these details. Filing documents and tax returns might be the best place to start revealing the existence of these accounts. Don’t ever hide money. There is a lot of bad advice out there, and the first among them is to begin hiding money. From having a cash squirrel fund to offshore bank accounts, it’s not a good idea. If you feel your spouse might not have your best interests at heart, documentation is the answer, not deception. Hiding money will more often than not have more damaging long-term consequences. You’re not a professional money launderer and there is almost always a paper trail. Regardless of the situation, there is almost always a better option if you are preparing for a divorce. In the months to come, these deceptive tactics that seem like a good idea now, become an assault on your credibility and may even escalate into more legal fees and costs. Ultimately, it may get back to the one person you absolutely don’t want to find out, the Judge in your case. Do separate your bank accounts. If you don’t have your own checking and savings account, get them now. You will need them for the long run and will want to start getting them set up now. If the money is held jointly, you can begin moving assets into your accounts for now. In some cases, there is a real concern that one party will get the idea to withdraw or spend down that account either in fear or as retribution. In either case, this is a bad idea and one you can mitigate the risk of by establishing your own financial ecosystem. If your spouse does decide to abruptly and possibly hostility, spend down the joint accounts, trust that this behavior can be identified by your counsel and the judge. And that in this situation your wish to isolate your portion of the funds was prudent and their behavior will likely be dealt with. If you are concerned that the divorce will cause you an extended period of financial hardship, and with no access to money you may want to withdraw half the money into an individual account. Consult your attorney prior to the action, move the money, and immediately notify your soon-to-be-ex of what you’ve done. Transparency is key, and mitigating your risk is in your best interest. Have your own emergency fund. Clients that work with a CFP® should be familiar with the idea of an emergency fund. This will be your “divorce” emergency fund. It should be separate from any existing emergency fund you share. It may be the seed money for your own personal, post-divorce, emergency fund in the long run, but for now, it is designed to save you from the compounding psychological, and emotional issues that accompany a divorce. The fund should be a 2nd savings account with a singular goal, housing cash, and highly liquid assets that can be used to keep you in your house, make your car payments, and maintain your spending should a secondary event disrupt your personal cash flow. There are several scenarios we have witnessed that can cause a disruption in cash flow. From the broader economy to your employment situation, or even currently undiagnosed health issues. The idea is to not worry about the nature of the risk but to confirm that you are now financially ready for the unknowns that may arise. You should be the only person with access to this fund. But you shouldn’t keep an account like this a secret. This is just quality financial advice that will persist through your divorce and into your new financial life post-divorce. It is freeing and financially sophisticated to know you have a risk management plan in place for the unforeseen in your future. Build a team around YOU. This might be a good opportunity to do your own vetting of an attorney, accountant, and financial planner for the divorce and into the future. Several of our clients have felt that in the marriage one of all of the above advisors was the result of the relationship they had with their spouse. This might be your best opportunity to build a more personal team that is prepared to represent your interests more acutely. “Team You” should be composed of several professionals that you have personally selected for their responsiveness and professionalism regarding your specific situation. In most cases, this

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