InSight

Market InSights:

When does a Bear look like a Bull? (Pt. 1)

Four things to avoid and four things to embrace when the Bear turns into a Bull.

 

A Bear Rally is a short, swift, updraft in stocks that can end as quickly as it began. Here are the four signals to avoid.

Markets will routinely go through bouts of extreme buying during a bear market. There are several fundamental and technical reasons why markets “rally” at these times amid broader weakness in the market. The market this time has just come off its 4th bear market rally of the 2022 selloff.

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All Four Bear Rallies

These “false” turnarounds can be frustrating to the casual observer. A feeling that the market is random and chaotic can lead people to become frustrated during these moments of euphoria, only to be quickly rebuffed by another violent selloff.

At some point, these turnarounds stay intact and the Bear market rally is seen for what it is, the beginning of the next bull.

Here are some of the important topics to keep in mind to determine if we are looking at a new Bull, or another Bear.

Markets are Money with Emotion – Bear Rally (4)

If markets were perfectly logical they would be rather dull. If smart people reached the same conclusion regarding the future value of dollars (inflation), corporate revenue (earnings), and cost of capital (debt) then the auction that is the market would see a very narrow band of trading. But, it’s not, there is a maelstrom of emotion that accompanies markets and this market is no exception.

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Bear Market Rally Four

The rally from the June lows, to the most recent selloff, started at the Fed meeting in June and ended in mid-August (Bear Rally 4). The “Dovish Pivot” was the culprit – the belief that a small part of Jerome Powell’s update in June was dovish, and the “feeling” that the rate hiking cycle would come to an end sooner. This was both a fundamental shift in markets and an emotional one. One that we at InSight, didn’t share. We either didn’t hear this new dovishness, or we didn’t believe in it. 

This Bear rally was an abrupt reversal of the trend based on emotion, which you might assume is not a reliable and lasting reason for markets to change course, and you would be right. These good times were quickly brought to an end with more commentary from fed chairs and economists in August and were fully doused by Powell’s speech on September, 21st.

Trading markets on emotions is hard, and for that, we look for momentum to confirm our emotions and use the MACD reading to understand when emotional buying has turned into momentum buying. We try not to fight the momentum in markets.

The “Narrow” rally – Bear Rally (2)

When markets turn around, it happens quickly, and no one wants to “miss out” on the bottom. This causes abrupt buying at symbolic (not fundamental) levels or in single stocks or sectors. Some stocks serve as a bellwether for markets, Trains, Chips, and Logistics companies can tell us when the market is healthy and the supply chain orderly. But when one group of stocks march higher alone, it is likely a false rally and they will routinely be brought back with the border market.

The US Technology Index registered a bear market on March 14 when it closed down 19.8% from its peak on Nov. 22. The index then zipped higher, gaining 17.3% as of March 29 before resuming its downward trend. The index lost 27% between its March 29 close and its June 16 low.

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Bear Market Rally Two

There was a “buy the dip rally” in a Bull Market for well over a decade. So, traders and investors have been conditioned to buy up markets trading on lows. Markets registering short-term (1 and 3 month lows) have been quickly reversed since the financial crisis.

The great financial crisis ushered in an era of seemingly unlimited accommodation from the Fed and every dip was met with more and more liquidity from investors and the government. Operating in unison, the market drawdowns were short, and bull rallies were profitable.

The Bear Rally (2) of this cycle was met with no such injection from the Fed and the rally petered out when traders ran out of money. This reversal was confirmed as the market headed lower from Bear End (2) into Bear Start (3). A lack of dry powder meant there was less capacity to continue buying up the market. 

There was no confirmation in the rest of the market, and it was proof that while technology is the most important sector in the SP500, it alone cannot fix weaknesses in other market sectors.

Oversold conditions cause “snapbacks” – Bear Rally (1)

Beware of Oversold conditions that cause bear-market rallies. This is also known as a bear trap, a sucker’s rally, or a “dead cat bounce.” Frequently bottoms are found when conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads “oversold” so traders and investors misinterpret these as bottoms, especially early in a bear market. The Bear Rally (1) is a good example of this:

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Bear Market Rally One

A phenomenon in bear market rallies is the snapback or dead-back bounce. When stock prices deteriorate so quickly, the oversold conditions are met, and the traders look to profit off the short-lived really to come. Oversold conditions are routinely bought up quickly – but they are quickly reversed when the longer trend catches up with the short-term trend. Oversold, or overbought conditions are usually reached when a chart favors the bias of a daily trend over a weekly trend. 

Rallies based on “oversold” conditions very rarely last longer than a couple of weeks. 6-15 trading days at the most, before the more powerful long-term trend, exerts its pressure over the short term.

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The Rules of Self-Directed IRAs

At InSight, our clients know that when you understand the rules you make better decisions. Our InSight-Full® plan is about marrying the goals that you have with the right Rules of Self-Directed IRAs and the right strategy. We cannot stress enough the importance of knowing the rules and how to avoid problems both now and in the future. By Kevin T. Taylor AIF® and Peter Locke CFP® The first rule is when you open a self-directed IRA you’re not the owner. The tax code requires the assets in a Self-Directed IRA (SDIRA) and its owner remain separate and not used in a way that one indirectly enriches the other (beyond permitted rules). When you think about investing into something using your IRA think of it as solely an investment and not for personal use.  The IRA owner and anyone else responsible for the account is prohibited from commingling their vested interests of the SDIRA with its owner or any “disqualified persons” which includes: The fiduciary of the account including the SDIRA owner Family member (ancestor, spouse, lineal descendant, or spouse of a lineal descendant Corporation, partnership, trust, or estate where 50% or more of the shares/profits/beneficial interests are owned by any of the above Officer, director, or 10% or more shareholder or partner of an entity above If someone is a disqualified person, they’re prohibited from directly or indirectly transacting between the SDIRA and the disqualified person in the following manners: Transfer, use, or benefit of the assets Lending or extending credit (both ways) Sale, lease, or exchange of property Furnishing of goods, services, or facilities Dealing assets for your own benefit as the fiduciary Personally receiving consideration as a fiduciary from a third party that engaged in a transaction with the IRA This means that if any of these transactions listed above with any disqualified person occur even if done at fair market value, will be subject to severe consequences. The standard penalty is 15% of the amount involved in the transaction which is imposed on any disqualified person engaged in the transaction. Furthermore, if it’s not resolved by the end of the year in which the violation occurred, the penalty is increased to 100% of the transaction amount. And to top it off, the entire account loses its tax-deferred status and is treated as if the entire account was liquidated and distributed as of the current year. The majority of clients for asset protection purposes and clean book keeping manage their self-directed IRA inside of an LLC. Don’t have your IRA own the property, have your IRA own an LLC that has a bank account that you’re the manager of.  Then the LLC is the owner on the contract. This like any other rental property gives you the ability to have limited liability in the event someone comes after your assets. These are investment assets not personal assets, this is definitely a breach of rules of self-directed IRAs. You cannot live there, your parents, kids, or grandparents cannot live there. You cannot sell your own property or buy a piece of property from yourself using the IRA. Don’t take a salary or commission (prohibitive transaction).  Any repairs or maintenance must be done by a third party. The reason is if you were to work on it on your own then you’re self serving and this could be viewed as a contribution to the IRA which is prohibited. Also, if you own a property management company and are a 50%+ owner, your company cannot do work on the property. The easiest thing you can do is separate yourself completely from the investment and let third parties do the work. If you follow through with the purchase, keep all accounting separate. You don’t want to accidentally make a mistake and disqualify yourself by accidentally mixing personal use assets with your Self-Directed IRA. For example, if you think you can use a credit card to pay for the repair of something you cannot. All expenses come out of the IRA not your bank account. Another prohibited transaction in this type of account is transacting with prohibited parties or disqualified persons such as kids, parents, spouse, grandparents, spouses of your kids and yourself. Although, siblings are allowed.  The rule specifies disqualified persons as ancestors. Keep your Self-Directed IRA separate from your business where you’re a 50% or more owner. In this case, your IRA is a prohibited party and therefore you cannot loan to an LLC that is associated with your business. If you’re not putting down the full amount to buy in this case a rental property, you’ll need to get a non-recourse loan. This means the bank will charge a higher interest rate but if you default then they will only take the property. Having a non-recourse loan in an IRA means you will be subject to unrelated debt taxable income (UDTI). UDTI is generated when you finance the purchase of property in an SDIRA. Unrelated Debt Financed Income (UDFI) and Unrelated Business Taxable Income both trigger UBIT (Unrelated Business Income Tax). To even the playing field for everyone (because using leverage in an IRA and collecting income is way to get huge contributions into your IRA which isn’t fair to non-exempt persons) the IRS made it so tax-exempt entities you must pay income tax on the income they realize from the UDFI that year at the Estate Tax level which is much higher than ordinary income levels. Lastly, invest in what you know. Don’t take unnecessary risk by breaking one of the Rules of Self-Directed IRAs, and don’t invest in your friend’s start-up that you know nothing about. If you know rentals buy rentals, if you know commercial real estate buy commercial real estate. Just like anything we do here at InSight, have the right people, process, and policies set up to hold yourself accountable so you make more informed investments.

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Real Estate Investing and More in your Retirement Accounts

Yes, you read that correctly, you can own real estate, land, private businesses, notes, precious metals, livestock, crypto currencies, equipment and more in your retirement accounts. We love telling clients of InSight that there is an investing world beyond what CNBC & Jim Cramer. Your retirement nest egg can be invested in more than stocks and bonds and you don’t have to be uber rich to do it. Anyone and everyone can. Our clients at InSight want to Invest in what they know, are passionate about, and understand, not just what the news or latest article or podcast tells them they should invest in. For many, yesterday, today, and tomorrow’s stock market can be intimidating, frustrating, and quite frankly annoying. By Peter Locke CFP® and Kevin T. Taylor AIF® Now, while doing this on your own is possible, there are a lot of ways to screw up and disqualify an investment opportunity by not knowing the rules so we recommend you use a third party professional before you do this. Let’s shed some light on what the clients at InSight are talking about and investing in. Over the past decade, I worked for a large brokerage firm. I wasn’t given the tools to help clients with self-directed IRAs. Unfortunately, I couldn’t even refer them to a third party that could. Advisors at these large firms like the one I used to work at aren’t given the opportunity or even allowed to refer clients to do something they want to do because it wasn’t in the best interest of the firm. What I mean by this is that if your expertise is in residential real estate and your financial advisor is only pitching you to sell your properties and invest in their diversified stock and bond portfolio then are they acting in your best interest? Sure, maybe all your net worth is in real estate and diversifying into non-correlated assets is a good idea. In that case, yes. However, this is not the case I am referring to. I am referring to the case where you know real estate and you want to use the funds you’ve saved in your retirement accounts to buy an investment property or a business that you heard about (key word here is investment not personal). Your advisor will most likely sell you on why you shouldn’t and that you should invest in stocks and bonds instead. Or they will tell you that you can’t depreciate an asset that’s in an IRA and therefore not great for tax incentives, or that it’s too expensive. And they’re right about depreciation but wrong about the tax incentives. If you buy a property in an IRA and the rent pays for your mortgage, the income just like a dividend isn’t taxable when it’s inside the IRA, and neither is the sale when you want to get into something else. When you turn 59.5 you can take that rental income which would be ordinary income inside an IRA or 401(k) but if you bought it in a Roth, then it’s tax free. That advisor doesn’t want you to invest in a property because that means no compensation for them. At InSight, a core part of our business is enabling our clients to use the tools at their disposal to get to where they want to go. We help our clients make these types of investments a reality. We’re only fiduciaries when we’re using everything that is available to us and is in the best interest of the client. If a client has a high required rate of return, but hates the day to day fluctuations in the stock market, then riskier investing isn’t appropriate. This would be a case where we’d look at alternative investments and find another way to capture that rate of return required to get them to that goal. A client’s home and 401k are typically their two largest investments. But if your 401k is 4x your home value, then spreading your investments out into things you feel more comfortable with and gives you capital appreciation and income then real estate may be an option for you. If interest rates are low, then real estate is probably an even better option. As I stated before, you can easily mess this up and therefore you need to make sure you surround yourself like we always do with the right People, Processes, and Policies to hold you accountable. Be sure to read the Rules of Self-Directed IRAs and make sure it fits in your InSight-Full® plan.

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Asset Borrowing in Self Directed IRA and Roth’s

Like getting a mortgage on a home, borrowing inside of a Self Directed IRA (SDRIA) can help add leverage, expand the upside of an investment and pose undue risks. It should only be used as part of a greater investment strategy coordinated by a CFP® or CPA®. Most borrowing in a SDIRA is for the purchase of real estate or a business inside of a tax advantaged account. Borrowing can make some assets more accessible to investors, and the upside and cash flow is often a fantastic endowment for any retirement strategy. An important note: interest payments made from a SDIRA are not tax deductible and you should note that in your investment calculations. Finding an working with a lender is also as important as vetting the investment and any other partner involved in the investment. We prefer using banks and other institutional lenders to limit risk and provide continuity. Please consult the InSight property acquisition process for more details on both borrowing and buying real estate. There are restrictions that you should be aware of from the outset that will help make having debt in the Self Directed IRA or Roth’s easier.  You cannot borrow money from yourself Understand prohibited counterparties The loan must be in your IRA’s name You can’t sign a personal guarantee You can’t pay off the loan with personal funds The debt must be non-recourse The debt service should be covered by monthly income at a rate of +1x (ideally, +1.15x) Be aware of any other conditions that are required by the lender If the above conditions do not compromise the investment strategy in the account, then borrowing inside of a Self Directed IRA might be the right fit for you. How using debt in your InSight-Full® financial plan is up to you and your CFP®. 

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